2020 Carlosian general election

2020 Carlosian general election

11 November 2020
858 of 859 seats in the National Assembly 430 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	77.4% 0.9 pp
First party Second party   Leader Cárlos Tobón Mariah Contreras Party National Salvation Socialist Republican Leader since 7 September 2010 2 March 2019 Leader's seat Madrigal 21st Madrigal 10th Last election 507 30 Seats before 510 27 Seats won 446 149 Seat change 64 122   Third party Fourth party   Leader Elon Básaran Damián Torrero Party Democratic Synarchist Leader since 27 October 2014 13 June 2013 Leader's seat Zararcia 6th TBD Last election 68 23 Seats before 70 24 Seats won 115 52 Seat change 45 29
President before election Cárlos Tobón National Salvation President Cárlos Tobón National Salvation

The 2020 Carlosian general election took place on Friday, 11 November 2020. As with previous years, 858 of the 859 seats in the National Assembly were up for election. The outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran was automatically re-elected. The ruling National Salvation party won in a third consecutive electoral landslide, albeit with a reduced majority compared to 2015. The Socialist Republicans, led by Mariah Contreras, and the Democratic Party, led by Elon Básaran, both made significant gains. Support for the Conservative Party, traditionally Carloso's largest political party, collapsed to well below even its 2010 result, winning only 49 seats. The Synarchist Union also increased its number of seats, campaigning against vulnerable National Salvation candidates. The Communisty Party was wiped out amidst a wave of defections to the Socialist Republicans, and Green Alternative re-entered the National Assembly for the first time since its electoral wipeout in 2005. The number of independents increased slightly from 2015.

Led by President Cárlos Tobón, National Salvation sought to win a third term in government since the Corrective Revolution. The party campaigned heavily on its success in economic and social reforms. In foreign policy, Tobón championed Carloso's admission to the Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation (SACTO) and his opposition to globalism. Early in the campaign, it appeared that the results of the election would be similar to 2015, with the long-standing Conservative Party and Democratic Party making small gains. However, revelations that Raúl Figueroa, Deputy Leader of the Conservative Party, was being investigated by authorities for tax evasion and possession of illegal drugs led to a steady drop in support. Tobón was accused of being 'soft' on the CaBI19 pandemic, and the Synarchist Union benefitted from backlash towards his decision to provide medical assistance to the city-state of Kesslerstaadt. In the final weeks of the campaign, support for the Socialist Republicans grew significantly as Mariah Contreras emphasised herself as the best person to challenge Tobón. At the same time, support for National Salvation rebounded as Tobón embarked on an aggressive spree of rallies across the country. Nevertheless, there were fears that the country would end up with a hung National Assembly. The disparate opposition parties in the National Assembly hoped to deprive National Salvation of another majority, but failed in this objective.

Tobón was re-elected to a third term as President of the Executive Council, becoming the longest-serving head of government in Carloso's republican history. With Jorge Spalderán's decision to not seek a third term as Deputy President, Estebán Santander succeeded him. National Assemblymen who were successful in the election took their seats on 11 February 2021, forming the 44th National Assembly. Following the collapse in support for the Conservative Party, Ferdinand Casares immediately announced his resignation as leader. Orlin Almansar replaced him, and served as Senior Leader of the Oppositon for the remainder of the 43rd National Assembly. Upon the formation of the 44th National Assembly, Mariah Contreras succeeded Almansar and became the first woman to hold the role. As the leader of third-largest party, Elon Básaran remained Junior Leader of the Opposition.

Background

Functioning as a broad coalition of the right, National Salvation's time in government has been mostly focused on reversing the period of social and economic liberalisation which occured between 2001 and 2011. It became the largest party in the National Assembly in the aftermath of the 2010 general election and preceding Corrective Revolution. After securing a majority in the National Assembly at the 2015 general election, Tobón began to pursue a programme of tough social and administrative reforms, heavily regulating access to contraception, outlawing divorce and making the execution of an abortion a capital offence under Carlosian law. In foreign affairs, Carloso has shifted from membership of the International Freedom Coalition (IFC), to geopolitical neutrality, to membership of Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation from 2017 onwards. Tobón has actively pursued an 'anti-globalist' and 'anti-liberal' foreign policy since then. After Tobón backtracked on his decision to step down as party leader in 2019, opting to run for another term as President of the Executive Council, there was some talk amongst backbenchers of a potential leadership challenge. Tobón's overwhelming popularity amongst party members and voters was apparent, however, and any prospect of a challenge to his position within National Salvation rapidly evaporated.

Oppositon parties have struggled to eat away at National Salvation's popularity amidst constant infighting and organisational chaos. Left-leaning parties and aligned organisations have routinely protested in Carloso's major cities, accusing National Salvation of engaging in electoral intimidation. There have also been sporadic demonstrations against President Tobón's opposition to gay marriage, abortion and his election as President of the Executive Council. This has often manifested in the dissemination of unfounded conspirarcy theories by left-wing activists, including claims that the Nifonese government interfered in the 2015 general election on National Salvation's behalf. Attempts by the Conservative Party, Democratic Party and Socialist Republicans to form an alliance ahead of the 2017 provincial elections ended in failure. Since then, Democratic Party leader Elon Básaran had been negotiating an alliance between left-leaning parties such as the Socialist Republicans, Green Alternative, Communist Party and some independent National Assemblymen. In May 2020, Básaran suggested forming an electoral alliance called 'Republican Alternative', but this was rejected by Socialist Republican leader Mariah Contreras.

Electoral system

Carloso is divided into 286 constituencies, each with three National Assemblymen each. Each seat approximately represents 420,000 people. The outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran, will be automatically re-elected. His constituency, Viruna's 8th National Assembly constituency, will also get one extra seat to make up for the loss in representation during his tenure as Presiding Officer, bringing the total number of seats to 859. Due to this high representative-to-electorate ratio, it has been suggested to establish an upper house or double the size of the National Assembly. As with previous elections, the voting method used will be proportional representation with the single transferable vote (STV) and elimination transfers only. In this process, voters number candidates in order of preference. The ballot papers are counted continuously and the candidate with the lowest number of votes at the end of each count is eliminated and their votes are redistributed to the other candidates according to the preferences of the voter. The process continues until the top three (or four) candidates are remaining and these then go forward to be elected National Assemblymen. Since its implementation in the 1955 election, the system has been regarded as being representative of the Carlosian electorate, giving a slight advantage to smaller parties. However, it also means majority governments in Carloso are somewhat uncommon, with the extraordinary exception of the National Salvation government since 2016.

Constituency changes

The constituencies will be the same as they were at the 2015 general election.

Parties and candidates

National Salvation

Party				Leader	Deputy Leader	Campaign slogan
	National Salvation			Cárlos Tobón	Estebán Santander	Keep it Right. (Menténha a Direcha)

Since 2011, National Salvation has been the largest party in the National Assembly. In 2016 it managed to obtain a majority, one of the largest in Carlosian electoral history. In 2018 National Salvation also won two by-elections, increasing its majority by two seats. Despite the party's consistent and overwhelming popularity in election results and opinion polls, it is unlikely that National Salvation will be able to increase its majority any further, and it's primary focus will be to loose as few seats as possible and retain command of the National Assembly. It intends to run 572 candidates in total. Should it maintain its majority, then it is almost certain Cárlos Tobón will be sworn in for a third term as President of the Executive Council. Estebán Santander is likely to become Deputy President, succeeding Jorge Spalderán. The party has campaigned on its successful economic reforms since 2010, roleback of social liberalisation, proactive and assertive foreign policy; inclusive of Carloso's membership of the Santiago Anti-Communist Treaty Organisation (SACTO) since 2017, and zealous opposition to communist and progressive elements.

Similiar to 2010 and 2015, Tobón has embarked on a campaign of mass rallies across Carloso.

Conservative Party

Party				Leader	Deputy Leader	Campaign slogan
	Conservative Party			Ferdinand Casares	Raúl Figueroa	Back to Normal. (TBD)

The Conservative Party is the second largest political party in Carloso. The party has struggled to distinguish itself from National Salvation, which has replaced the Conservatives as the major catch-all party of right-wing politics in the country. Despite recovering some seats at the 2015 general election, mainly at the expense of the embattled Socialist Republicans and Democratic Party; party membership has declined. Party leader Ferdinand Casares was chosen as a presidential candidate at the Conservative Electoral Convention on 28 July 2020.

Socialist Republicans

Party				Leader	Deputy Leader	Campaign slogan
	Socialist Republicans			Mariah Contreras	TBD	Modern Socialism. Modern Carloso. (TBD)

Mariah Contreras has been a leader of the Socialist Republicans since 2 March 2019 and has steered the party in a more left-wing, populist direction. The party has sought to convert working class voters who have supported National Salvation in recent years. It has also benefitted from an influx of members and supporters from the Communist Party.

Green Alternative

Party				Leader	Deputy Leader	Campaign slogan
	Green Alternative			Benjamín Lacasa	TBD	Vote green. (TBD)

Campaign

August

Outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly Jorge Moran (left), and Officer pro tempore Tomás Ocanas.

The election campaign formally began on 15 August 2020, when the first debate between the parties with seats in the National Assembly was aired lived on RTC 1. On 17 August outgoing Presiding Officer of the National Assembly, Jorge Moran, stated he would contest the election and will therefore be automatically returned, presuming he is still in office on 11 November.

September

The 2020 National Salvation Electoral Convention is scheduled to begin on 1 September and will run until 4 September, where President Tobón will almost certainly be renominated as the party's candidate for President of the Executive Council. The format is expected to be substantially different from the 2015 convention,

Opinion polling

Under present regulations, polling agencies are required to include all political parties which have obtained more than 0.2% of the first-preference vote as of the last general election, provided that party stood in at least 283 constituencies in 18 of Carloso's 24 provinces. Regionalist parties are excluded from national polls. Green Alternative obtained just over 0.2% of the vote in the last general election, and so is always included in national surveys.

2020

Graph of opinion polls conducted since 1 January 2020.

Polling firm	Last day of polling	Sample size								Other	Lead
2020 general election	11 November 2020	–
RTC News/ACU	11 November 2020	TBA
Madrigal Times/MMU	11 November 2020	TBA
Moratorium on opinion polling
RTC News/Melgar Analytics	27 October 2020	1,458	51.1	7.9	13.7	16.4	5.2	0.1	2.2	3.4	34.7
TBA	20 October 2020	TBA	TBA								TBA
TBA	13 October 2020	TBA	TBA								TBA
TBA	6 October 2020	TBA	TBA								TBA
TBA	29 September 2020	TBA	49.8	8.1	13.7	16.4	5.7	0.1	2.4	3.8	33.4
TBA	22 September 2020	TBA	50.1	8.2	13.2	16.1	5.8	0.2	2.6	3.8	34.0
TBA	15 September 2020	TBA	49.9	8.7	13.9	15.6	6.1	0.2	2.7	2.9	34.3
TBA	8 September 2020	TBA	50.2	9.3	13.4	15.3	5.9	0.1	2.2	3.6	34.9
TBA	1 September 2020	TBA	49.5	9.6	13.8	14.7	6.0	0.2	2.7	3.5	34.8
TBA	25 August 2020	TBA	48.2	9.8	14.1	15.2	7.2	0.1	2.3	3.1	33.0
TBA	18 August 2020	TBA	50.0	8.5	13.7	15.3	6.0	0.1	2.4	4.0	34.7
TBA	11 August 2020	TBA	49.6	9.1	14.9	14.3	5.7	0.2	2.1	4.1	34.7
TBA	4 August 2020	TBA	48.2	10.5	15.1	14.2	5.6	0.3	1.9	4.2	33.1
TBA	28 July 2020	TBA	TBA								TBA
TBA	21 July 2020	TBA	TBA								TBA
TBA	14 July 2020	TBA	TBA								TBA
TBA	7 July 2020	TBA	TBA								TBA
TBA	30 June 2020	TBA	46.1								TBA
TBA	23 June 2020	TBA	45.7								TBA
TBA	16 June 2020	TBA	45.9								TBA
TBA	9 June 2020	TBA	46.1								TBA
TBA	2 June 2020	TBA	47.1								TBA
TBA	26 May 2020	TBA	47.3								TBA
TBA	19 May 2020	TBA	46.9								TBA
TBA	12 May 2020	TBA	46.6								TBA
TBA	5 May 2020	TBA	46.8								TBA
TBA	28 April 2020	TBA	47.2								TBA
TBA	21 April 2020	TBA	47.1								TBA
TBA	14 April 2020	TBA	46.7								TBA
TBA	7 April 2020	TBA	46.3								TBA
TBA	31 March 2020	TBA	46.6								TBA
TBA	24 March 2020	TBA	46.7								TBA
TBA	17 March 2020	TBA	45.6								TBA
TBA	10 March 2020	TBA	50.2								TBA
TBA	3 March 2020	TBA	51.3			8.6	5.1				TBA
TBA	25 February 2020	TBA	51.5			8.9	3.8				TBA
TBA	18 February 2020	TBA	51.8			8.8	4.2				TBA
TBA	11 February 2020	TBA	52.1			9	2.9				TBA
TBA	4 February 2020	TBA	53.2			8.8	1.7				TBA
TBA	28 January 2020	TBA	51.8	17.2		8.5	1.3				TBA
TBA	21 January 2020	TBA	52.5	19.3	14.6	8.4	1.1	0.2	2.3	1.6	32.1
TBA	14 January 2020	TBA	55.3	20.4	11.1	7.8	0.9	0.4	2.2	1.9	34.9
TBA	7 January 2020	TBA	54.7	19.9	11.4	8.2	1.1	0.4	2.1	2.2	34.8
2015 general election	11 November 2015	–	57.8	19.7	8.1	3.3	3.1	2.1	0.2	5.7	38.1

Debates

English-language

2020 Carlosian general election debates
Date	Broadcaster	Moderator(s)	Participants —   Name  Participant    N  Party not invited						Notes
			NS	Con	Dem	SR	SU	Com
6 October	RTC	TBA	Tobón	Casares	Básaran	Contreras	Torrero	Batias	The first debate was held at RTC's national studios in Madrigal. Casares and Batias were criticised for repeatedly interrupting President Tobón
TBA	TBA	TBA	Tobón	Casares	Básaran	Contreras	Torrero	Batias	Held on the campus of Arteida Circuit University, Secano with the leaders of the three largest parties in the National Assembly present.
5 November	TBA	TBA	Tobón	Casares	Básaran	Contreras	Torrero	Batias	National Salvation and the Socialist Republicans agreed to a debate between Tobón and Contreras. It is to be held on the campus of Ebon Metropolitan University.

Results

Carlosian general election – 11 November 2020

Party		Leader	First-preference votes			Seats
			Votes	% FPv	Swing (pp)	Cand.	2015	Out.	Elected 2020	Change
	National Salvation	Cárlos Tobón				572	507	510	0 / 859 (0%)
	Conservative Party	Ferdinand Casares				TBD	183	181	0 / 859 (0%)
	Democratic Party	Elon Básaran				TBD	68	70	0 / 859 (0%)
	Socialist Republicans	Mariah Contreras				TBD	30	27	0 / 859 (0%)
	Synarchist Union	Damián Torrero				TBD	24	23	0 / 859 (0%)
	Communist Party	Tómas Batias				TBD	18	14	0 / 859 (0%)
	Green Alternative	Benjamin Amaral				TBD	0	0	0 / 859 (0%)

Party	National Salvation	Socialist Republicans	Democratic Party	Synarchist Union	Conservative Party	Green Alternative	Independent
Leader	Cárlos Tobón	Mariah Contreras	Elon Básaran	Damián Torrero	Ferdinand Casares	Benjamín Lacasa	N/A
1st preference votes	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
Seats	446 (51.92%)	149 (17.35%)	115 (13.39%)	52 (6.05%)	49 (5.7%)	18 (2.1%)	30 (3.49%)