2021 Hennish federal election

2021 Hennish federal election

3 September 2021
All 180 seats in the Second Chamber 91 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats SAP Rupert van Bleiswijk 49 VDP Eva Kaestel 40 NVP Fabian van Aitzema 36 MdP Klaas-Jan Jagers 15 Groen Bart van Veen & Lise Xi 11 Links Dirk Smolders 7 VSD Margje Westerveld 6 PP Gaspard Toussaint 6 ABP Sharon Visscher 5 LIVE Elise Dumont Aguas 2 Independents – 3
Incumbent Premier Rupert van Bleiswijk SAP

Federal elections will be held in Hennehouwe on 3 September 2021 to elect all 180 members of the 28th Second Chamber. The election was formally called by Premier Rupert van Bleiswijk on 21 July 2021, following assent by Stadtholder Adriaan Wilhelm Paulus.

Background

The outcome of the previous federal election, held in 2017, resulted in the imcumbent centre-right coalition, led by the National People's Party (NVP), being replaced by a "purple" grand coalition of the Socialist Labour Party (SAP) and the Progressive Democratic Party (VDP). The leader of the SAP, Rupert van Bleiswijk, became Premier, replacing Michiel Hagan of the NVP. The coalition held 89 of the 180 seats in the Second Chamber, two seats short of an overall majority. As a result, confidence and supply arrangements with the Agrarian–Farmer's Party (ABP) and the Party for the Petois (PP) were necessary to ensure the long-term viability of the government.

Of the ten parties represented in the outgoing Second Chamber, six have different leaders going into the 2021 election than they had in the previous election. Dirk Klaver was initially named the leader of the NVP in November 2017, but resigned in August 2019 following a leadership challange in the wake of poor election results, including the Euclean Parliament elections held earlier that year. He was replaced by current leader Fabian van Aitzema in September 2019. The Greens continued their policy of naming one man and one woman as co-leaders, electing Bart van Veen and Lise Xi to the joint position in March 2019. The leadership of The Left is renewed every year at its party conference, with Dirk Smolders being elected every year since 2018. Margje Westerveld and Sharon Visscher were elected as leaders of the People's Party for Sotirian Democracy (VSD) and ABP respectively – the first women to hold both roles. Sam Tarokh led the LIVE party from 2020 until July 2021, when he was ousted during party infighting. Tarokh subsequently resigned from the party and confirmed he would not run for the party in the upcoming election. On 19 July 2021, two days before the beginning of the campaign, the party named Elise Dumont Aguas as its new leader.

Date

Article 42.2 of the Basic Law (Algemene Wet) states that a new Second Chamber shall be elected no later than 28 days after the fourth anniversary of the first sitting of the current Second Chamber, excluding public holidays, and that the date of the election must be held no less than 28 days but no more than 56 days after the dissolution of the pevious Chamber. Article 42.3 states that the first sitting of the new Chamber must occur within 28 days after the election date, excluding public holidays.

The Electoral Law of 2000 legislates for fixed-term election dates, automatically scheduling an election for the first Friday of September four years after the previous election, or the second Friday of September if the former falls on a public holiday. An election prior to the fixed date can be called for in the Chamber via a two-thirds supermajority vote. Under the Law, the election was automatically scheduled for 3 September 2021.

Electoral system

The 180 members of the Second Chamber are elected by open list proportional representation in 10 multi-member constituencies corresponding to the 10 regions of Hennehouwe, with seats allocated according to the Berger method.

There is no electoral threshold, meaning the effective threshold depends on the size of the region: in the smallest region, Oudkessel-Witburg (7 seats), the effective threshold is around 10%, whilst in the largest region, Flamia (40 seats), it is closer to 2-2.5%. Seats are allocated to the regions in proportion to population, with a review of seat distribution carried out one year after the last census. The allocation of seats remains unchanged from the 2017 election.

For an outright majority in the Chamber, a party (or coalition of parties) must have at least 91 seats. Due to the nature of Hennehouwe's multi-party system, it is rare for any one party to singlehandedly obtain a parliamentary majority, and thus coalitions and/or agreements between different parties is necessary.

Electors vote by casting a preference for a personal candidate from their chosen list, rather than voting for a party list outright. If a candidate receives a quota of either 20% of 1/xth of votes (x equalling the number of seats in that region) or 33% of the total votes for their own list, they will bypass the rest of the list in the allocation of seats regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Otherwise, the remaining seats are allocated according to the placement of candidates on the list. In regions with more than 24 seats, parties are limited to a maximum number of candidates equating to two-thirds the total number of seats. Due to the current distribution of seats, only Flamia and Lower Stegeren are affected by this change. In all other regions, the maximum number of candidates on a list is the total number of seats.

Region	Seats
Flamia	40
Geeland	9
Grotevlakte	19
Lower Stegeren	32
Molenburg	13
Oudkessel-Witburg	7
Reekland	12
s'Holle	21
Upper Stegeren	15
Zilverzee	12
Hennehouwe	180

Parties and leaders

In order to participate in the elections, a party or list of candidates must provide declarations of support by 0.05% of all votes cast in the previous election in each region contested, as well as a deposit of €1,800 in each region contested. This deposit is refunded to lists who obtain 1% of the vote in the region contested.

On 12 August 2021, the Electoral Commission announced that 31 parties had met the requirements to participate in the elections in at least one region. These include all ten parties represented in the outgoing legislature, as well as 21 other lists. Thirteen parties will contest all ten regions.

Parties represented in the 27th Second Chamber
Party			Leader	Main ideology	Position	2017 result		Current seats	Regions contesting
						Votes (%)	Seats
	Socialist Labour Party	SAP	Rupert van Bleiswijk	Social democracy	Centre-left	23.2%	49 / 180	49 / 180	10
	Progressive Democratic Party	VDP	Eva Kaestal	Social liberalism	Centre	19.0%	40 / 180	40 / 180	10
	National People's Party	NVP	Fabian van Aitzema	Conservatism	Centre-right	18.0%	36 / 180	36 / 180	10
	Patriot's March	MdP	Klaas-Jan Jagers	Right-wing populism	Right-wing to far-right	9.6%	16 / 180	15 / 180	10
	Green Party	Groen	Bart van Veen & Lise Xi	Green politics	Centre-left	6.8%	11 / 180	11 / 180	10
	The Left	Links	Dirk Smolders	Democratic socialism	Left-wing	5.6%	7 / 180	7 / 180	10
	People's Party for Sotirian Democracy	VSD	Margje Westerveld	Sotirian right	Centre-right to right-wing	4.9%	6 / 180	6 / 180	10
	Party for the Petois	PP	Gaspard Toussaint	Petois minority interests	Centre	2.9%	6 / 180	6 / 180	3
	Agrarian–Farmer's Party	ABP	Sharon Visscher	Agrarianism	Centre-right	3.6%	5 / 180	5 / 180	10
	LIVE – The Liberal Union	LIVE	Elise Dumont Aguas	Classical liberalism	Centre to centre-right	3.5%	4 / 180	2 / 180	10
	Independents	Onaf.				–	0 / 180	3 / 180	–

The following parties do not currently have any seats in the legislature, but are confirmed to be competing in the election.

Extra-parliamentary parties participating in the 2021 federal election
Party			Leader	Main ideology	Position	2017 result	Regions contesting
						Votes (%)
	Independent Hennish Section of the Workers' International	OHSAI	Pieter Godeke	Council communism	Far-left	0.2%	10
	Oopsie Woopsie Party	owo	Tchuu Tchuu	Joke party	Syncretic	0.2%	10
	Heart of Hennehouwe	HvH	Pieter Veer	Populism	Right-wing	did not exist	10
	Vox Hennehouwe	Vox	Christian Asscher	Euclofederalism	Centre	did not exist	10
	Catholic Labour Party	KAP	Leendert Wijgmonds	Social conservatism	Centre-right to right-wing	0.3%	8
	Red Party	Rode	Ana Joshi & Max van Daal	Council communism	Far-left	did not exist	8
	Future Hennehouwe	Future	Ellen Peterson	Radical centrism	Centre	0.7%	7
	Party for the Senior Citizens	PvdB	Diana De Wever	Pensioners' interests	Centre	0.2%	7
	Green Conservatives	GC	Hanneke Schrotenboer	Green conservatism	Centre-right	did not exist	7
	Sustainable Hennehouwe	DH	Alessia Simonini	Sustainability	Centre-left	did not exist	7
	The V Party	DeV	Annamieke de Burg	Animal welfare	Left-wing	0.3%	6
	Sotirian Confessional Union	SCU	Jan-Hendrik van Erp	Social conservatism	Right-wing	0.1%	5
	Basic Income Party	BIP	Inès De Loof	Universal basic income	Centre-left	did not exist	5
	For Freedom	VV	Philippe Steenput	Right-wing populism	Far-right	did not exist	5
	Direct Democracy Now!	DDNU	Rinus Rhezerkamp	Direct democracy	Centre	0.1%	4
	Hennish Brotherhood	HB	Stefaan Keijzer	Hennish nationalism	Far-right	0.1%	4
	Liberal Party	LP	Benjamin Perak	Libertarianism	Right-wing	0.1%	4
	Vive le Petois	Vive	Florent Deschamps	Petois minority interests	Centre-left	did not exist	3
	Spiritus	Spir	Siske Schumer-Pagavi	Humanism	Syncretic	did not exist	2
	The 99% – For The Many	99%	Femke Asscher	Left-wing populism	Left-wing	did not exist	2
	Dermaux List	LD	Alan Dermaux	Regionalism	Centre	did not exist	1

Campaign

Debates

Hennish federal election debates, 2021
Date	Organisers	Channel	P  Present    A  Absent invitee   NI  Non-invitee											Notes
			SAP	VDP	NVP	MdP	Groen	Links	VSD	PP	ABP	LIVE	HvH
12 August	Mediacentre	ATV	P van Bleiswijk	P Kaestel	P van Aitzema	P Jagers	P van Veen	P Smolders	P Westerveld	P Toussaint	P Visscher	P Dumont Aguas	NI
17 August	Nous	Nous (Estmerish)	P de Boer	P Martin	P Brugmans	P Jakobs-Davidson	P Xi	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	Debate in Estmerish.
18 August		Nous (Gaullican)	P van Bleiswijk	P Kaestel	P Dior	P Rousseau	P van Veen	NI	NI	P Toussaint	NI	P Dumont Aguas	NI	Debate in Gaullican.
23 August	HNO	De Eerste	P van Bleiswijk	P Kaestel	P van Aitzema	P Jagers	P Xi	P Smolders	P Westerveld	P Toussaint	P Visscher	P Dumont Aguas	P Veer	Split into two debates of six and five.
30 August	HNO	De Tweede	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	P Smolders	P Westerveld	P Toussaint	P Visscher	P Dumont Aguas	P Veer
31 August	HNO, Mediacentre	De Eerste, ATV	P van Bleiswijk	P Kaestel	P van Aitzema	P Jagers	P Xi	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI

Endorsements

Individuals

Socialist Labour Party

• Zoe Halivar, Estmerish politician and incumbent Prime Minister of Estmere
• Sofija Anasdohter, Azmaran politician and incumbent Thingspeaker of Azmara
• Stiofán Mac Suibhne, Caldish politician and incumbent Taoiseach of Caldia
• Ottila Möller, Alslandic politician and incumbent Premier
• Bonne Zijlstra, Alslandic politician and former President of the Euclean Community

Organisations and political parties

Socialist Labour Party

• Social Democratic Party of Caldia

Green Party

• Green Party of Caldia

Opinion polls

Graphical summary of the average of polls conducted for the federal election since September 2017.