Ninvite War
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| Civilian dead: 100,000+ | |||||||||
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The Ninvite War (Gharbaic: حرب نينوى, Tamashek: ⴰⵎⵢⴻⵔ ⵏⵉⵏⵠⴰ) was an armed conflict between Fahran and Charnea that began on April 17, 1985 with the Charnean declaration of war. The outbreak of hostilities was preceded by the escalating guerilla conflict in the eastern Charnean region of Hatheria occurring from 1982 to the outbreak of the Ninvite War and continuing until 1986. The Charnean rationale for declaring open war with Fahran was the cited need to prevent the Gharib pan-nationalist regime of Fahrani prime minister Sabir Afzal Rahmani from supporting the predominantly Gharbaic rebel groups active in the east of Charnea and preventing the formation of a Fahrani-backed separatist state in Hatheria. Fahran cited numerous Charnean military incursions across the two nations' shared border as its casus belli, characterizing the Charnean activities and later declaration of war as an unprovoked aggression towards neutral Fahran whilst denying Charnean allegations of Fahrani military support for Hatherian rebels. The conflict would earn its name two weeks into the start of open hostilities, through the remarks of Charnean Premier Baseel Madoun stating that "Fahran [had] provoked a war that would light the Ninva on fire".
As part of the age-old Fahrani-Charnean conflict, the outbreak of the Ninvite War inflamed regional tensions that had long simmered below the surface as a result of centuries old grievances. The scale of the war quickly drew the attention of many nations in the east Scipian region and the Association of Ozeros Nations of which Fahran was a member. Charnea drew military and economic support initially from local allies such as those in Itayana but would later be forced to look further afield, petitioning for aid from distant Mutul. Fahran was aided by neighboring Vardana with which the nation had coordial relations, and would begin to purchase arms from Alanahr and Latium as the war escalated.
The conflict would be one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, rivalled only by the Third and Fourth West Scipian Wars for the title of the largest war on the Scipian continent in that period. More than 1 million lives would be claimed by the fighting, with at least one in ten of those killed being civilian inhabitants of the conflict zone. The loss of life would be compounded by the economic loss of over $1 trillion as a result of war-related economic stress and direct disruption of economic activity by the war. The regions of eastern Charnea, western Fahran and the territory of Happara later involved in the war are significantly impacted by the effects of the war even in the present day.
Background
Fahran-Charnea relations
Akzay War
The insurgency in Hatheria, known in Charnea as the Akzay or "Bastard" war, began as a result of a severe drought in eastern Charnea in 1982. The Charnean government tightened its water controls in reaction and deployed the Raxla into the region to enforce its policies, which involved the redistribution of water from the majority Gharbaic eastern Hatheria to the Deshrian and Tenerian majority areas in the central and western portions of east Charnea. This mitigated the drought for the western regions but caused a state of severe water shortage in the east, sparking off unrest. The Gharbaic minority in Charnea, long opposed to the rule of the Tenerian majority government, entered a state of armed resistance to the Raxla which forced the intervention of the Imperial Charnean Army. The Gharibs unilaterally declared their independence from the Charnean Empire, claiming themselves to be the independent nation of Hatheria with its capital in Hamath, an act which marked the start of the Akzay war. The Gharib insurgency struggled for years in their attempts to force the capture of the Hatherian city of Hamath, their claimed capital city, which remained in Charnean hands for the duration of the conflict.
The regime of Prime Minister Rahmani in Fahran, directly bordering the Charnean region of Hatheria, was sympathetic to the cause of the rebellion. The ideology of the Rahmani government was a mixture of secularism and pan-gharibist nationalism, which inclined the Fahrani state to align itself with Gharib nationalist separatists fighting an independence struggle against the non-Gharib Charnean state. Charnean repeatedly accused Fahran of supporting the rebels with funding and weapons, calling into question the providence of many items found in rebel bases, caches and in the possession of rebel fighters on several occasions. The Fahrani government denied the Charnean accusations on each occasion, claiming the discoveries to have been planted by the Charneans themselves to implicate Fahrani involvement. The Charnean army, unmoved by the denials of the Rahmani government, began a series of operations to cut off the supply of weapons, ammunition, food and volunteers across the Fahrani-Charnean border. These began as military operations within the context of the Akzay War, which re-established nominal Charnean government control over the area of the Fahrani-Charnean border, but would later escalate further as a result of rebel activity and lead to the start of the Ninvite War.
Border Conflicts
The Imperial Charnean Army began military operations near the shared border in late 1984 as part of their effort to cut off the rebel forces from their suspected source of arms and supplies. This came at the tail of two years of frustration and consistent failure by the ICA to trap and defeat the rebels on the field of battle, and represented a change in tactics from pursuit of a tactical defeat of the rebels to a strategic one. However, the borders of eastern Charnea with many neighboring countries are generally open desert or otherwise hostile terrain that was difficult to monitor and fully secure with the technology of the early 1980s, forcing the Charnean army to take on a more aggressive approach in blocking the entry of any supply that might be smuggled through their blockade at the border. The ICA began a series of raids and ambushes in early 1985, several of which led to confrontations and even conflict with Fahrani forces at the border. On more than one occasion, Charnean units violated Fahrani territory in their operations to block Fahrani supply convoys from breaking their blockade and resupplying the rebels under siege across the Hatherian region. The Rahmani government issued protests and threatened reprisals for these border incursions, escalating to a major diplomatic incident between the two nations. While some parties in both governments had been involved in negotiations towards an end to the conflict since 1983, these had seen no progress and now broke off altogether. At some point in late 1984 or early 1985, high ranking members of the Imperial Charnean Army and the Charnean state reached the conclusion that the Rahmani regime in Fahran would continue to foment resistance to Charnean rule in the east under any circumstance, and that breaking the back of the Fahrani state and demilitarizing it would be the only way to secure a lasting peace in Hatheria and the rest of the Charnean east. Charnea had already amassed a significant force in Hatheria and the border region to fight the ongoing Akzay War, and so after only a brief buildup of forces, the Charnean Empire declared war on the Kingdom of Fahran.
Course of the War
1985
Charnean Incursion
The opening moments of the war between Charnea and Fahran took the form of a large scale Charnean aerial strike launched in the early morning of the 17th of April 1985 with the intentions of destroying the Fahrani air force on the ground and securing Charnean dominance in the air for at a long period. Charnea possessed fewer fighter-bombers and combat aircraft than Fahran, and its air force was generally less well equipped with older airframes and weapons systems in its inventory. For this reason, Charnea aimed to neutralize the Fahrani air advantage and secure the skies as a prelude to a planned invasion of Fahran which Charnean leaders hoped would topple the Rahmani government and secure victory in a matter of months. The strike was successful in severely damaging many Fahrani airbases and base infrastructure, but proved far less effective at destroying the Fahrani combat aircraft themselves. As a result, after hurriedly repairing their runways, Fahrani bases were able to launch their superior fighter aircraft and launch retaliatory sorties against Charnean positions in Hatheria.
The ICA leadership ordered the planned land invasion to go ahead regardless of the failure of the aerial attack to destroy the Fahrani air advantage, hoping to exploit the nearly 5 to 1 Charnean advantage in tanks and armored vehicles to punch through the Fahrani army's ground forces and proceed with the invasion plans. The incursion of Charnean forces into Fahran would begin on the 20th of April. Charnean armor, once over the Al-Kira river which marked the border at prepared crossing points, would traverse over open desert quickly to catch the Fahrani's by surprise. However, Fahrani forces were better prepared for the attack than expected thanks to the pre-emptive mobilization of the country ordered by Prime Minister Rahmani. In addition, the intact Fahrani air force was able to destroy a large number of vehicles involved in the Charnean attack over the border. The ICA units involved, planning to take the enemy by surprise and denuded of air cover, had not anticipated the enemy air superiority and was lacking in anti-aircraft defenses and countermeasures. In under 48 hours, the Charnean incursion into Fahran was called off and a full retreat back into Charnea was ordered. A number of units would become stranded on the Fahrani side of the Al-Kira river after Fahrani aircraft destroyed their bridges, resulting in the humiliating loss of a number of armored units. The attack was a resounding failure for the Charnean army, a sobering loss and one which prompted the hurried reshuffling of the army command and general staff.
Fahrani counter-attack
The disorganized state of the Charnean forces in Hatheria invited the Fahrani army to launch a retaliatory strike through the first weeks of May against the positions of the ICA across the Al-Kira. Simultaneously, the Hatherian rebels stepped up their attacks in response to the weakening of the ICA positions against them as a result of the opening moves of the war, causing further disarray among the Charnean forces. ICA units, many already weakened by losses suffered in the failed incursion against Fahran, suffered serious damage. Many units, such as the 11th motor rifle regiment, functionally ceased to exist with remnants scattering into the Hatherian portion of the Ninva desert to the west of the combat zone, later being absorbed into other units. Reinforcements from the reserves intended to contain the rebels and exploit the expected breakthrough in Fahran were called forward only sporadically, as the reshuffling of the Charnean high command was contributing to the discoordination on the front. After two days of heavy losses, the new Charnean high command ordered a general withdrawal from the contested regions in Hatheria to a new defensive line around the built up areas of Deshret, abutting the Alanahri border. This order was met with some disobedience, as a number of subordinate Charnean officers at the divisional and regimental command levels opted instead to make a stand at Hamath and deny the city to the rebels, now linked up with their Fahrani allies quickly deploying into the region. A significant Fahrani-Hatherian force moved to break the defenders at Hamath, initiating what would become a grueling siege of the city against stubborn Charnean defense. As the month of May drew to a close and June began, the momentum of the massive Fahrani counter-offensive would break against the Charnean defenses in front of Deshret and in the surrounding positions in Hamath.
War in Hatheria
The war in Hatheria would become one of the most protracted and bloodiest phases of the war as front lines crystalized and an attritional contest set in. The Fahrani air force had more advanced and more numerous airframes in the air over the region, yet the Charneans were desperately contesting Fahrani air power with sorties of their own, as well as the rushed deployment of their air defense stockpiles consisting primarily of mid and short ranged missile systems and anti-aircraft cannons on mobile platforms. Thanks to their numerical and technological advantage, the Fahrani air force maintained a lasting advantage in the air and consistently carried out strikes against the besieged Charnean positions in Hamath, but faced the deadly obstacle of massed Charnean air defense missile systems in their attacks against the main Charnean defensive line on the approaches to Deshret region and in the open desert where those Charnean air defense units mobile enough to operate in the desert did so with the cover of the feared Charnean raider units. These were small, highly mobile motorized units armed with A45 Torka armored car and the new A84 Inabarom infantry fighting vehicle that excelled in ambush and hit-and-run attacks in the hostile terrain of the Ninva, considered to be qualitatively the best trained and most elite units of the ICA. These raiding units faced motorized units of the Fahrani army as well as Hatherian forces equipped with improvised fighting vehicles, primarily used to screen armored pincers of the regular Fahrani army attempting to carry out attacks on the southwestern flanks of the main Charnean defensive positions. In contrast to many of the other Charnean front line units, the Charnean raiders excelled in their role and frequently outmaneuvered the opposition in the open desert. Besides the superior training of these units compared to the rest of the ICA, the style of engagement in the open Ninva was much closer to the traditional Charnean light cavalry tactics and desert warfare doctrine with which the ICA was well acquainted. The more conventional modernized Fahrani army adapted quickly to conditions on the Ninvite front, drawing on their own experiences in the desert and their Bedouin Gharib heritage, but remained on the backfoot under of the oppressive campaign of harassment and disruption of their Charnean opposition. As the campaign mounted, both sides made greater and greater use of chariot-type improvised fighting vehicles fashioned from all manner of civilian automobiles to fill the gaps in these raider units as the production of new armored cars and IFVs could not keep up with attrition. The battle of the Hatherian Ninva would be dubbed the "Chariot War" after the Charnean term for the improvised vehicles that would become its hallmark.
As the second half of the year 1985 rolled in, attritional fighting along the Hamath-Pertoth highway and in the Hatherian Ninva continued. The deadlock from July in August saw both sides calling up reserves, denuding other portions of the military such as the Fahrani Navy and the Charnean border guards to funding and manpower replacements, and mobilizing the population. In this, the Charneans had an advantage despite their smaller population as the years of the Akzay War preceding the conflict with Fahran had given the army ample time to prepare itself and begin a pre-mobilization initiative. Although they had been caught off balance by the bungled opening of the war, as the months dragged on the Charnean military began to mobilize the stockpiles and registers planned in advance. In spite of its failures, the Charnean military had been far more prepared for a major war than its Fahrani counterpart and began to build up large reserves outpacing the Fahrani mobilization in the short term. Conversely, the Fahrani siege on Hamath and its offensives along the Hamath-Perthoth positions had depleted stocks of artillery shells and strike munitions for its fleet of fighter-bombers, which the Rahmani regime was working to remedy by negotiating for purchases from abroad. In the meantime, the ICA had gained the upper hand in the battle and began to push back Fahrani forces. As losses mounted there was an increase in irregular units of the Hatherian rebels were used to plug holes in the line, which the ICA had picked up on. First raider units and then full combined arms forces began to exploit the weakness of the rebels in open combat to punch through the lines and cause small breakthroughs wherever the rebel units were manning defenses. Attacks of this nature progressed, with losses mounting over September and October as the Charneans slowly ground down the opposition, opening up a supply line to Hamath and relieving the defenders there. It was also during this time that units of the Divine Army of the Ninety-Nine Nations, specifically Charnean born contingents disbanded by the Mutulese and quietly permitted to return to Charnea to join the fighting, began to arrive. These were highly trained fighters renowned for their ferocity and effectiveness in combat, and were quickly integrated into the ICA's elite raider units to fill in the losses of difficult to replace Charnean commandos. Piecemeal attacks against the Fahrani positions in Hatheria would slow down towards the end of November and go into an extended lull through December and into the new year, foreshadowing a new Charnean offensive being prepared by the ICA high command to retake the initiative, sweep the Fahranis from Charnea, and cursh the rebel forces once and for all.
1986
End of the Hatherian campaign
Invasion of Happara
Breakthrough in the Hasidmawt
1987
Struggle in Western Fahran
Ihemod Line
Stalemate
Ceasefire
Aftermath
Casualties
Economic situation
End of the Rahmani Regime
Foreign involvement
Alanahr
The Kingdom of Alanahr had expressed great concern and dissatisfaction with the escalation of the conflict since the outbreak out of the Akzay War and the Charnean accusations of Fahrani involvement in 1982 and '83. The Alanahri state was involved in the attempted brokering of a peace agreement to end the Akzay War and the tensions between the belligerent powers from that point until the outbreak of the Ninvite War in 1985. Alanahr followed a policy of neutrality in the war, supporting neither party during the war in Hatheria. However, the Alanahri government would be provoked to change this policy and begin offering material aid to Fahran in retaliation to the Charnean violation of Happaran neutrality in mid 1986. The aid remained minor, however, and largely aimed as diplomatic leverage against Charnea which would eventually affect the relinquishing of Happaran territory and renegotiation of Happara's neutrality. At the insistence of Alanahri diplomats, Charnea would be included as guarantor of Happara, an agreement in which Charnea barred itself from moving any forces into Happaran territory. Alanahr would also be involved in the peace talks which would eventually culminate in ceasefire and the final armistice of the Treaty of Kahrash.
Mutul
The Divine Kingdom exact role in the conflict remain an unclear and debated topic. Official documents concerning the Ninvite war are still classified and kept away by the Central Library with only a minority of historians being allowed to go through a selected panel of files.
Charnea had already been an important client for the Mutulese industry. Before the war, the Mutulese aircraft manufacturer Ik' Chuk' won an important state contract with the Desert Republic, refurbishing its air forces with its K'ak'mul 5 jet fighters, deploying engineers and military trainers alongside the aircrafts. Many of these personel would still be present in the country at the start of the hostility.
Before any known involvement from the Divine Throne, "Mutuleses" volunteers made their apparition in Charnea in 1985. These were Charnean-born Tenerians serving in the Divine Army of the Ninety-Nine Nations who despite their rigorous religious and political training had deserted to return defend their country. To this day, the surviving deserters are officially forbidden from setting foot in the Mutul under threat of capital punishment for high treason if ever arrested, a condemnation unaffected by the various mass or specific pardons granted by the K'uhul Ajaw in the past three decades.
In 1986, the K'uhul Ajaw bought Charnean War bonds for an estimated total of 50 billion Latin solidus. The monetary influx was used notably to buy more K'ak'mul 5 to replenish the air force dwindling number of aircrafts. An operation made easier by the fact the war bonds had already been paid in B'ul, the Mutul' legal currency. Later in the same year, Mutuleses great houses such as the Ilok'tab, the Chel, or the Xiu, agreed to a new joint credit operation to Charnea, injecting another 10 billion in the desert country, while the K'uhul Ajaw validated the demand by Charnea' government to the Mutul' central bank for another 20 billion solidus while the Divine Lord continued to buy various Charnean obligations and bonds and encouraged other Mutuleses investors to do so as well. By 1987, the Mutulese financial support had been massive, reaching a total 100 billion solidus. A large portion of the money will serve to buy aircrafts, vehicles, missiles, guns, and other weapons from the Mutul directly or from other sources such as the then still unstable Elatia.
The reasons behind the Divine Throne late by valuable direct help to Charnea remain unclear. The Desert Country had become during the 20th century a valuable client especially when it came to military affairs. Economically, it is questionable if such a middle-tier economic partner, especially one with a negligible ammount of long-term investments in it, was worth such a risky, sudden, 100 billion loan. Not all of that money was lost to the Mutul as a country: part of it served as a "stimulus check" to the militaro-industrial complex as the Charnean used their B'ulob to buy military equipments and supplies. But a large part of the money went to pay for the training and sustainment of the army, the maintenance of their equipments, the reconstruction of destroyed roads and rails, the stockpiling of rations and other supplies, etc... money virtually lost for the Mutul in the short term.
Some historians and geopoliticians have theorized that the cultural ties between the two countries, symbolised by the Tazzarat, have played their role in convincing the Divine Throne to so massively help Charnea. Especially when the Mutul had just gone through the collapse of one of its partner (Elatia) and might have been scared into action seeing another partner in danger which would have left the Mutul closer and closer to isolation. This vision of the Ninvite War as part of a larger Culture war between the theoreticals White Path world and the Western Monarchies has also been criticized as not matching previous patterns of behavior from the Mutul. The argument of the Divine Throne being concerned about a potential isolation doesn't really add up either when its economy had already picked up after the 50s crisis through partnership with Tsurushima and Sante Reze, tying the Mutul deeply to their respective economic spheres.
Yisrael
The Kingdom of Yisrael and Fahran had deep ties going back centuries, especially among the mercantile Fahrani Jewish families who engaged in long-range trade with their Yisraeli cousins across North Scipia and the Ninva Desert. In the aftermath of the fall of the Autocracy regime in Yisrael, certain senior Azoulayist supporters fled to Fahran, where the late dictator had distant relatives influential in local politics. After some tensions, the two governments began to strengthen ties during the Yarden peace process in the late 1960s. Meanwhile, Yisraeli feelings soured on the Charneans, who they viewed as local puppets of the the Mutulese due to the anti-Mutul panic in the 1950s and irritating neighbors who permitted a wild west-style atmosphere at the the northwestern fringe of the Great Ninva desert. Furthermore, inside Charnea, the Ashkans, a group comprising the descendants of vanquished Temple-era heretics, claimed Jewish descent and legitimacy, irking the religious authorities in Yisrael. As new and fast modes of travel and technology quickened the worldwide exchange and movement of people and ideas over the course of the 1950s-1970s, such perspectives were being brought to the attention of Yisraeli audiences.
As the era of liberal ascendancy was receding inside Yisrael, the view of Fahran was on the rise and Charnea on the decline. The three-term Conservative presidencies of the Schwartz-Citron era reset Yisraeli foreign policy, pushing a more expansive, post-Yarden view that emphasized buttressing supportive monarchies. The Akzay War broke out during the last two years of President Binyamin Schwartz, and he denounced the Charnean actions as "brutal" and "aggressive," and further defended Fahran's defense of its neutrality with the independence move. Clandestinely, he organized black budget arms sales to Fahran with Knesset's consent in 1983 and 1984.
His successor, Michoel Citron, continued quiet support of the Fahranis, and forcefully condemned the early 1985 Charnean offensive and declaration of war. Once war was official, Yisrael openly sold and/or supplied small and heavy arms to the Fahranis for their war effort, as well as provided an economic aid package in 1986 through Knesset appropriations. At the request of the Fahranis, a volunteer unit at the regiment-level was formed from Yisraeli military veterans that saw action along the Ihemod Line in 1986-1987.