Gylian presidential election, 2015

Gylian presidential election, 2015

22 January 2015
Turnout	93,5%
Nominee Laura Varnaþ Electra Galanou Party PA UNR Final vote 7.700.283 7.457.754 Percentage 50,8% 49,2%
Results of the final preference distribution by region   Anina Bergmann   Electra Galanou
President before election Laura Varnaþ President after election Laura Varnaþ

Presidential elections were held in Gylias on 22 January 2015.

Incumbent Laura Varnaþ was re-elected, defeating Union for a New Republic candidate Electra Galanou.

Procedure

The election was held through instant-runoff voting.

Candidates were registered with Elections Gylias in accordance with normal procedures. They could either be nominated by a political party or electoral bloc, civic organisations, or self-nomination as independents.

Candidates

Candidate		Nominator		Office(s) held	Details
Laura Varnaþ			Progressive Alliance	City Councillor of Velouria (1992–2002) Regional Councillor for Nerveiík-Iárus-Daláyk (2002–2006) President of Gylias (since 2007)	Campaigned as the main leftist candidate.
Electra Galanou			Union for a New Republic	Chief executive of Omicron Group (since 1961)	Campaigned on promotion of economic nationalism and disability rights.
Helena Bonham			Liberal Union	None	Campaigned as the main liberal candidate.
Keie Nanei			Independent	None	Campaigned on a satirical platform.
Amanda Leloup			OMFLG–ACFEN	Governor of Nezyál (1970–1978)	Campaigned on promotion of francité.
Victoria Cavallo			Independent	None	Campaigned on a satirical platform.
Saeni Rotara			Humanist Party	None	Campaigned on promotion of the arts and culture.

Results

Candidate		Nominator	First count	%	Final count	%
	Laura Varnaþ	PA	2.681.807	16,1%	7.700.283	50,8%
	Electra Galanou	UNR	2.665.149	16,0%	7.457.754	49,2%
	Helena Bonham	LU	2.663.484	16,0%
	Keie Nanei	Independent	2.416.957	14,5%
	Amanda Leloup	OMFLG–ACFEN	2.398.634	14,4%
	Victoria Cavallo	Independent	1.832.290	11,0%
	Saeni Rotara	HP	1.798.976	10,8%
Others/write-ins			199.886	1,2%
Total			16.657.183	100%	15.158.037	100%
Registered voters and turnout			18.178.744	93,5%

Maps

First count pluralities by region

Final count majorities by region

Analysis

After two nail-biter wins in 2007 and 2011, the incumbent Laura Varnaþ entered her last election in a more secure position. However, the large number of candidates led to expectations that the voting would be tight, and speculation who would face Laura in the final round.

The National Bloc did not nominate a candidate after Yseult Roxane Danesh's poor showing in 2011. Instead, the conservative mantle was taken by the Union for a New Republic's candidate Electra Galanou, who had previously finished third in 1986.

Helena Bonham arriving for a public meeting during the campaign

A somewhat surprising nomination was Helena Bonham as the Liberal Union's candidate. A well-established, beloved character actress known for her quirky roles, Helena was also the grand-daughter of famed "anarcho-liberal" Violet Bonham, and accepted nomination in part due to an interest in "living up to the family name".

Confounding expectations, Helena ran a serious campaign, marked by erudite speeches that placed her in the liberal socialist tradition of the Free Territories. Arguably her sole concession to her cinematic fame was dressing in deliberately anachronistic Alscian fashions, but this mainly drew comparisons to Gylias' first president, Eiín Dairyn.

Voters also enjoyed a strong line-up of colourful candidates: columnist Keie Nanei (a returning candidate from 2003), comedian Victoria Cavallo (whose signature promise was organising a referendum on making "Arise, Gylians" the national anthem), and writer Saeni Rotara, who sought the Humanist Party nomination due to discomfort with running as an independent.

In the first round, Laura obtained a narrow plurality of 16,1% of first preference votes, and carried the northern regions of Salxar, Makarces, Gacar, and Gerşyr, which had previously gone against her. Electra took second place, overtaking Helena by only 1.665 votes. Helena registered a strong performance despite narrowly missing out advancing to the final round, winning pluralities in Tomes thanks to a sweep of Ðoron and Kaşa, and coming within 0,5% of overtaking Electra in Nerveiík-Iárus-Daláyk.

Keie's fourth place finish and 14,5% of first preference votes represented a 4,3% decline from her 2003 performance, but she still managed to win pluralities in Kausania and Envadra. Amanda trailed only 0,1% behind, and retained pluralities in Nezyál, Herlan, and Aðuna.

Victoria won 11% of first preference votes, coming second in Arxaþ, and Alţira, but not managing to win a regional plurality. Conversely, Saeni finished last, but picked up much of the "non-inscrit left" vote, managing pluralities in Mişeyáke, Sváen, Nauras, and Tandar.

In the final round, Laura generally gained transfers from Helena and Saeni's voters. Keie, Amanda, and Victoria's voters were more unpredictable with their preferences, keeping the contest close. In the end, Laura won by 50,8% of final preferences to Electra's 49,2% — her widest victory margin, but still only some 240.000 votes apart.

On the final map, Laura won majorities in 14 regions compared to Electra's 6, duplicating Anina Bergmann's feat in 2003. Besides her regions, Electra only managed to gain Aðuna from Amanda, Nauras from Saeni, and Envadra from Keie. The rest were all swept by Laura, although most by modest margins. This was the only election in which Laura carried Tandar in the end.