Gylian federal election, 1976

Gylian federal election, 1976

22 January 1976
All 395 seats in the Chamber of Deputies All 400 seats in the Senate 198 Chamber of Deputies seats and 201 Senate seats needed for a majority
Turnout	94,9%
First party Second party Third party   PA Leader Aén Ďanez Collective leadership Lea Kersed Party RWP N/A CNP Alliance RR PA NB Leader since 1972 N/A 1969 Leader's seat Tandar N/A Nerveiík-Iárus-Daláyk Last election 2 C 0 S 89 C 90 S Did not contest Seats won 84 C 39 S 84 C 66 S 60 C 55 S Seat change 82 39 5 24 60 55 FP vote 1.491.438 C 869.898 S 1.482.475 C 1.688.262 S 1.348.847 C 1.068.063 S Percentage 21,2% C 12,3% S 21,0% C 23,9% S 19,1% C 15,1% S Swing 19,7% C 10,8% S 11,7% C 6,5% S N/A
Plurality of deputies by region*   RR   LU   NB   NI   Tie * (SL, MK, GC, and GE counted together as two circonscriptions)
Prime Minister before election Darnan Cyras PA Prime Minister after election Aén Ďanez RR

Federal elections were held in Gylias on 22 January 1976, to elect the 395 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 400 members of the Senate.

Expected frontrunner Aliska Géza died a week before the campaign started, throwing the election into disarray. The demoralised Progressive Alliance–Liberal Union alliance lost ground to the conservative National Bloc and statist communist Revolutionary Rally. A fractious RR–PA coalition formed under Aén Ďanez, starting Gylias' wretched decade.

Electoral system

Both chambers of the Gylian Parliament were elected through single transferable vote, using the Droop quota.

The Chamber of Deputies was elected using 5-member circonscriptions, drawn by Elections Gylias based on regional populations.

The Senate was elected by regions, each electing 20 senators.

Parties were not allowed to nominate more than one candidate per seat. Candidates were not allowed to run for both chambers simultaneously.

Parties

Electoral bloc		Parties	Political position
	Progressive Alliance (PA)	DCP, SP, SDP, DL, LSL	Left-wing to far-left
	Liberal Union (LU)	NUP, NLP, PRRA, LLR, FSP	Centre-left
	Centre Group (CG)	MCP, RDC, RCP, IPR, CCM	Centre
	National Bloc (NB)	CNP, NPR, PDU, FEP, IFP	Centre-right
	Revolutionary Rally (RR)	RWP, WLF, PRV, RCR, RMP	Far-left
	Front for Renewal of Order and Society (FROS)	ACFF, PNM, RNM, PND, RU	Far-right
Non-inscrits (NI)		ARENA, FLP, GP, IRAM, LSDP, NPP, PFT, PFF, RJU, UI, UM, UNR	Various

Background

By the 1970s, the Golden Revolution and Gylian consensus had become settled. The 2nd Parliament's term was comparatively less active. Its main achievement was creating regional governments. Jessica Freeman identified the growing distance between the Progressive Alliance's parliamentary and popular wings as a key problem heading into the election.

The Conservative Coalition's dissolution ended the "constructive"–"recalcitrant" war in Gylian conservatism. The National Bloc formed as the main vehicle for progressive conservatism. Its good performances in local and presidential elections brought considerable expectations for a federal election.

Maria Elena Durante's death in 1975 destroyed her left-wing populist Movement for Emancipation and Democracy. Previously winning support from voters skeptical of the Golden Revolution but not reactionary, its demise left a void.

Darnan Cyras planned to retire at the end of his term. Deputy Prime Minister and finance minister Aliska Géza stepped into the spotlight as a successor-in-waiting. Her election as General Secretary of the Democratic Communist Party in 1974 and several foreign visits consolidated her perception as the next Prime Minister. Her death on 26 December 1975 shocked the public and threw the entire election into disarray.

Campaign

With Aliska dead and her grief-stricken colleagues declining to take her place, the Progressive Alliance went into the election without a foresitter. With no leadership or unified theme, member parties ran their own campaigns with little coordination. Sofia Westergaard, then Delkora's ambassador to Gylias, described the collapse of their campaign capabilities as "one of the sorriest spectacles I've ever had to witness."

The PA's disarray affected their Liberal Union coalition partners as well. The Centre Group found itself pushed to the centre, deprived of its former centre-right support.

The heavy pall over the election benefited blocs that met the moment. The National Bloc played down policy, promising to uphold the Gylian consensus, and ran a personality-based campaign. Their glamorous and charismatic leader Lea Kersed featured prominently in their PPBs. While Lea enjoyed high personal popularity, she sought to avoid a Beatrice Albini fate, and obtain the breakthrough that eluded Sasa Ruişela.

The Revolutionary Rally, previously marginalised, surprisingly rose to the occasion. Leader Aén Ďanez adopted the left-wing populist rhetoric and approach of Maria Elena Durante, focusing entirely on economics. Aén's somber rhetoric struck a chord with voters alienated by the PA's perceived focus on social engineering. The RR's rise in opinion polls in turn caused a slight increase in support for the Front for Renewal of Order and Society.

Among Non-inscrits, the LSD Party defied the somber atmosphere of the election with their typical humorous campaigning and proposals. One was to redistribute voting preferences from each according to their ability, to each according to their need. The Green Party, established in 1972, made its federal debut after good performances in municipal and regional elections. Their eco-socialist platform verged on green anarchism, and they gained a reputation as uncompromising firebrands.

The last opinion polls before election silence went into effect showed a tight race between the PA and RR, with the NB trailing closely in third place.

Results

In accordance with electoral law, the results were embargoed until the full counting and transfers were completed, and were released all at once on 27 January.

Parties and blocs		Chamber of Deputies					Senate
		FPV	%	±	Seats	±	FPV	%	±	Seats	±
	Revolutionary Rally	1.491.438	21,2%	19,7%	84	82	869.898	12,3%	10,8%	39	39
	Progressive Alliance	1.482.475	21,0%	11,7%	84	5	1.688.262	23,9%	6,5%	66	24
	National Bloc	1.348.847	19,1%	New	60	New	1.068.063	15,1%	New	55	New
	Non-inscrits and independents	1.183.257	16,8%	4,6%	99	23	1.626.034	23,1%	3,3%	125	33
	Liberal Union	786.188	11,2%	13,4%	35	22	963.248	13,7%	9,8%	61	23
	Centre Group	722.863	10,3%	8,3%	32	27	793.491	11,3%	5,9%	50	18
	Front for Renewal of Order and Society	33.126	0,5%	0,3%	1		41.334	0,6%	0,5%	4	4
Total		7.048.194	100%	—	395	110	7.050.330	100%	—	400	—
Registered voters and turnout		7.503.505	94,9%

Analysis

The RR won a plurality of first preference votes, less than 9.000 ahead of the PA. Both blocs tied for seats in the Chamber of Deputies, while the RR performed worse in the Senate, becoming the second-smallest group. The NB performed respectably and finished third overall, winning 19% of first preference votes for the Chamber of Deputies. However, Lea noted that their seat tally wasn't far from the CG's performance in 1969. She felt this a sign they had much to do still to win over voters.

It was an election of strong swings in support. The least affected were the Non-inscrits, who lost nearly 5% of first preferences in the Chamber of Deputies and 3% in the Senate, largely due to the emergence of the new blocs. There was no clear trend favouring either left or right non-inscrits. The worst affected were the PA and LU, who lost over 10% of first preference votes.

While still polling under 1%, the FROS managed to enter the Senate for the first time, as the ACFF won 4 seats due to a backlash against the RR.

At the regional level, the RR won the northern circonscriptions and cut into the PA's support in mainland Gylias. There were several two- and three-way ties between the RR, PA, and non-inscrits, notably in Mişeyáke, Nezyál, and Herlan. The LU's collapsing support made them finish second in Arxaþ and Alţira behind non-inscrits, but narrowly hold onto a plurality in Elena by one seat. Nerveiík-Iárus-Daláyk switched en masse to the NB, and provided all its seats. The CG, by contrast, won seats in the mainland for the first time — notably coming third in Elena.

Aftermath

When the new Parliament was sworn in on 1 February 1976, no obvious government could be formed. The resigning Darnan Cyras government remained as caretaker until negotiations concluded.

Aén's first proposal was a coalition with the PA, which failed. The PA was given the mandate to form a government next. With the PA–LU coalition decimated, they explored broadening it to include the CG or joining with the left non-inscrits. Neither option guaranteed a majority. Lea proposed a PA–LU–CG–NB grand coalition. It failed due to arguments over who would be Prime Minister and the PA ranks' discomfort at joining a coalition with conservatives.

Gradually, the PA saw a last resort: a coalition with the RR to "restrain" it for one term and regroup for the next election. They drove a hard bargain. Aén had to make numerous concessions: leaving important cabinet posts to the PA and seeking support from left non-inscrits. These negotiations succeeded, and the Aén Ďanez government was sworn in on 5 March 1976. It was a minority coalition including the RR, PA, and Independent Regional Alliance for Minorities, and relied on outside support from leftist non-inscrits.

In Gylian historiography, the election conventionally marks the Golden Revolution's end and the wretched decade's start. The way the coalition emerged created great bitterness. The PA was determined to box in the RR and defeat them at the next election. Aén held a grudge against the PA and sought to undermine it in office. The struggle would consume nearly a decade.