Biulundo conflict

Biulundo conflict
Part of Ethnic violence in Apatonia and the Apatonia Civil War
Apatonian forces prepare for a counterattack on LDF positions in Dori, November 5th, 2021
Date 3 September 2017 – ongoing (7 years, 2 months, 2 weeks and 4 days) Location Apatonia Spillovers in Thezu and Unified Sera
Participants
Apatonia Federal Forces Supported by Unified Sera CCAMSA	Lukonde Loyalists	Lundia Defense Forces Al-Fijar
Strength
150,000	350,000	300,000
Casualties and losses
12,659 killed, 9,921 wounded 14 peacekeepers killed, 62 wounded	23,129 killed, 37,282 wounded	60,000+ killed
90,000 violent deaths 121,000 total deaths (January 2022)
200,000+ civilians have fled Apatonia and 1,100,000+ civilians internally displaced (as of 2021)

The Apatonia Civil War, also known as the Biulundo Conflict, is an ongoing multi-sided civil war in Apatonia between forces of the government, opposition forces, and other rebel factions. Beginning in 2017, the Lundia Defense Forces, an al-Fijar affiliated rebel group in the easternmost province of Lundia, began fighting the federal government under President Asyuer Odoyo. Intially the fighting began as a declaration of separatist intention from the LDF, but evolved into a desire to distance the country from ethnic federalism and ethnic nationalist politics, while some LDF factions wish to form an Islamic caliphate in Apatonia. Due to the onset of the war, a deep humanitarian crisis has developed.

Mlamuli Ngotsha was elected President in 2018, inheriting the conflict and making significant gains against the rebels. Insurgent activity largely declined by the end of 2018 and the conflict stayed restrained to Lundia province in sporadic clashes, until the September 2021 fall of Biulundo to the rebels, which resulted in the Coalition of Crown Albatross Mission in Southern Adula (CCAMSA) sending hundreds of additional peacekeepers to the region. Federal forces began to be pushed back by the end of 2021, and a political crisis between Ngotsha and Prime Minister Michel Lukonde unfolded as Ngotsha suspended Lukonde's powers, delayed elections, and reformed the constitution. Lukonde and his supporters in the National Army subsequently took control of several government offices in the capital of Sifondo. Ngotsha survived an assassination attempt on January 1st 2022. On January 2nd 2022, LDF insurgents attacked multiple international consulates and triggered diplomatic suspensions. On January 17th 2022, Lukonde led a coup that ousted Ngotsha, and on January 23rd the government of Unified Sera declared war on both Lukonde's government and the LDF.

About 120,000 people were estimated to have been killed in the war by January 2022, including notable atrocities such as the 2018 Intupo massacre and the 2021 Dori massacre. More than 200,000 civilians have fled Apatonia, largely to Unified Sera, Timeria, and Austrolis, and more than a million people have been internally displaced. Fighting in the agricultural heartland in the center of the country caused the number of people facing starvation to soar to 4 million, causing famine in 2018 in some areas. The country's economy has also been devastated.

Background

The Apatonia civil war is often characterized as a fight between the central government expanding and dominating peoples of the periphery, raising allegations of marginalization. Kingdoms and great powers based along the coast of the Albarine Sea have fought against the people of inland Apatonia for centuries. Since at least the 18th century, central governments have attempted to regulate and exploit the undeveloped southern and inland Apatonia. Some sources describe the conflict as an ethnoreligious one where the Christian central government's pursuits to impose law on Muslim easterners, with more fundamentalist extremist Muslim groups in the east responding with their own desire to impose sharia law, which led to violence and eventually to the civil war. President Foley Sakzi of Zamastan has pointed to an exploitative governance as the root cause.

When the Albarineans governed Apatonia as a colony they administered the west and east provinces separately. The west was held to be more similar to the other South Adulan colonies – Peoratia, Buckingla, and Vita – while eastern Apatonia was more similar to colonies in Muslim-dominated Zalluabed. Eastern Muslims were prevented from holding positions of power in the West with its South Adulan traditions, and trade was discouraged between the two areas. After decolonization most power was given to the western elites based in Sifondo and Misamba, causing unrest in the east. The Albarineans moved towards granting Apatonian independence, but they failed to give enough power to eastern leaders. Eastern Apatonian leaders weren't even invited to negotiations during the transitional period in the 1950s. In the post-colonial government of 1957, the Apatonian Committee only included 6 eastern leaders, though there were some 800 available senior administrative positions.

The war is partially about natural resources. Between the east and the west lie significant oil fields and thus significant foreign interests (the oil revenue is privatized to other international interests). The west wanted to control these resources because they are situated on the edge of the South Adulan desert, which is largely unsuitable for agricultural development. Oil revenues make up about 70% of Apatonia's export earnings, and contribute to the development of the country which, unlike the east, does not depend on international aid. Due to numerous tributaries of major rivers, access to the coast, and heavier precipitation in the west, they have superior water access and fertile land.

There has also been a significant amount of death from warring tribes in the east. Most of the conflict has been between Lundi and the Bui but other ethnic groups have also been involved. These tribal conflicts have remained after independence. For example, in January 2012 3,000 Bui people were massacred by the Lundi.

Course of the conflict

Fall of Lundia (2021)

Destruction in the city of Kagame following the LDF assault in April 2021.

Thanks to a stalled offensive by government forces, the Lundia Defense Forces were able to reorganize their forces and gather numbers to establish their campaign along the border of Thezu. On April 5th, 2021, government forces flown into the city of Guaiba held off a rebel advance that reached the outskirts of the city, while other units attacked northward from its borders and westward from the city of Kagame, against the besieging rebel forces. This intervention by various groups saved the provincial government and pushed the rebel front lines away from the capital of Biulundo. However, it was ultimately unable to defeat the rebel forces, and the advance threatened to escalate into direct conflict with the provisional defenders. From May until September, the rebels began making notable advancements throughout Lundia province, seizing towns in bloody campaigns that saw brutal massacres and widespread war crimes.

On September 20th, 2021, the eastern city of Biulundo fell to the LDF and the Apatonian government retreated. Two Quetanan and an Arteganan peacekeeper working with the CCA were killed during the capture of the city, and President Ngotsha called on more international support. Over the following weeks in October 2021, more than 800 additional peacekeepers, most of them Quetanan, Zamastanian, and Seran, deployed to Apatonia. On October 24th, the town of Dori was overrun by the LDF, and hundreds of civilians were killed. The province of Lundia subsequently became a defacto LDF state.

As a result of increased violence, Ngotsha clamped down hard on the insurgency, but it came with increased regulation against the civilian government and members of the government. Refugees were aggressively barred from crossing into Unified Sera from Lundia by federal forces, and media was suppressed when internet was cut off nationwide for a week in early November 2021. On November 14th, Ngotsha ammended the constitution to delay already two-year delayed elections for an additional 4 months. Angered by this, Prime Minister Michel Lukonde opposed Ngotsha, but Ngotsha removed Lukonde from his political capability under the accusation of corruption. Thus, on December 28th, army forces loyal to Lukonde marched into Sifondo and created a standoff at the Presidential Residence, Parliament, and other government offices.

International involvement (2022)

Assassination attempt, embassy attacks, and coup

Ngotsha reinstated some of Lukonde's power after outcry from the public, but on January 1st 2022 a Lukonde loyalist attempted to assassinate Ngotsha, wounding the President with a knife outside the Residence. Ngotsha survived, and urged calm across the country as tensions continued to mount. On January 2-3, 2022, members of the Al-Fijar-affiliated LDF militia and their supporters assaulted the embassies of Zamastan, Caspiaa, and Unified Sera in Sifondo's Local Government Areas. As the attacks unfolded, contingents of the CCA Peacekeeping force, Zamastanian Army, and Seran Army deployed to protect their diplomats and embassy staff, making the trek from staging areas at Azikiwe International Airport. Multiple people, including a Zamastanian and 4 Seran marines, were killed in the attack. In reaction to the attacks, most international governments began withdrawing their diplomatic staff.

On January 16th, 2022, President Ngotsha was ousted in a coup led by supporters of Prime Minister Michel Lukonde. Lukonde's supporters stormed Parliament and detained more than 60 MPs who were Ngotsha loyalists. Many prominent government officials were killed, including Deputy President Guillaume Bona. Lukonde declared martial law, and ordered the Apatonian forces under his command to prepare for imminent clashes with the LDF. He also ordered the military to strengthen to border with Unified Sera, anticipating a military strike from the Serans for the events of January 3rd. Ngotsha, who had been overseas for the 2022 Leaders Summit in Shoassau, was granted asylum in Qolaysia by President Abiel Kennard. Forces loyal to Ngotsha scattered into factions to avoid being wiped out by Lukonde's supporters, and many massed in the city of Wabi, which remained a prominent Ngotsha-loyalist stronghold following the coup.

Seran invasion

On January 23rd the government of Unified Sera declared war against both Lukonde and the LDF. The announcement occurred only days before a series of Syrarantoan rocket attacks in Western Nortua which drew much of the world's attention, and the Zamastanian State Department released a statement saying that the Seran offensive would be left largely to its own devices without much interference from the international community. Within hours of Akan Khalfani's declaration, Seran Royal Air Force fighter and bomber entities carried out sorties against military targets across northern Apatonia. A subsequent ground incursion began on January 24th, with resistance from Lukonde's forces being practically non-existent and most acts of engagement being against small LDF targets.

By February 3rd, The Seran Royal Army's 4th brigade and Ngotsha-loyalist forces encountered heavy clashes against both Lukonde and the LDF in the northern city of Wabi. At least 28 Seran troops were killed in the clashes near and around Wabi, and artillery bombardments by defending Lukonde fighters were difficult to remove. A counter-attack attempt by Lukonde's forces on February 8th failed to breach the Ngotsha lines, and they were repelled into a retreat. At least 1,000 Lukonde fighters were killed in the battle, and the failure to recapture the city from the Seran-Apatonia coalition meant the road to the capital of Sifondo only 40 miles away was wide open for an assault.

On February 8th, a covert Zamastanian special forces raid managed to bypass Seran forces without detection in Wabi and killed Ghassaan el-Moghaddam, the leader of the LDF. The raid, which was carried out without Zamastan's ambassador alerting the Seran military commanders in the area, created a diplomatic spat between the two countries as Prime Minister Khalfani denounced it as bad faith and a vital risk considering the possible friendly fire that could have occurred between the two countries. The new LDF leader, Murshid el-Farra, was reportedly killed by Seran Royal Marines in the days after the el-Moghaddam raid. Khalfani made it known that his trust in Zamastanian officials had begun to decline as a result of the lack of communication, taking direct public comments at President Atticus Moreau.

"When working as a coalition, or at the very least friendly nations working in a hostile environment, there should be communication about activities that would demonstrate a level of trust between the two nations. What's more, the Zamastanian government has shown, through their own media and statements, that they do not trust the Seran leadership to keep information confidential. To the surprise of no one, you cannot simply walk around waving a big stick in someone else's backyard without informing them and then saying, 'no harm no foul'. Though with recent news, I expect that this may come to the surprise of the President who has demonstrated that he believes he can do what or who he wants without consequence."

Prime Minister Akan Khalfani

As a result of the diplomatic spat, WEDA heads of state like Akram Sulaiman denounced the Seran military operations in Apatonia due to a perceived lack of concern for civilian casualties. Many warnings about the possibility of sanctions against the Seran government were made by WEDA administrations if it was discovered that civilians were killed as a direct result of Seran military engagements. Secretary of State Jessiah Vallotis said that "Unified Sera has every right to defend its sovereignty and its citizens from hostile powers and actors," but that the ongoing military operations seem to be "targeted at an ideologically opposite government rather than a direct threat." He also confirmed that the State Department has not issued sanctions against Unified Sera, but said that the coming days would "determine actions we take in regard to holdings."

Prime Minister Gabriel Leitner of Shoassau called on the Coalition of Crown Albatross Human Rights observers to monitor both the actions of Lukonde's forces, Ngotsha's forces, and the Unified Serans in Apatonia as the wait for an assault on Sifondo continued to loom. On February 27th, the CCA Security Council agreed that as long as Seran military forces operated in the conventions of respecting human rights and protecting civilians, Lukonde's government needed to be toppled and the CCA would moderate new elections for an interim government. For nearly a month since the battle of Wabi, Seran forces battled Lukonde's fighters to surround the capital city and ensure that Lukonde could not flee via land corridors. However, it was later discovered that Lukonde had fled the city prior to the encroachment and relocated to Misamba, the country's largest city about 100 miles southwest.

On February 28th, Prime Minister Akan Khalfani was wounded in an assassination attempt during a campaign stop in Kito'Bahari. The assassination attempt galvanized the Seran populace in support of the conflict, and on March 6th Emperor Skolas Tu'Aruc was granted emergency powers over Unified Sera's military, judiciary, and legislature under the Articles of Federation. On March 8th, the Battle of Sifondo began as Seran and Ngotsha-loyalist forces advanced into the city. The international community continued to emphasize the need for protecting civilian life in the densely populated urban city, and the Seran government and military officials ensured that their forces would follow international law in the process. However, it became clear early on during the fighting that civilian deaths were mounting, though near entirely as a result of clashes between Lukonde and Ngotsha elements.

Cracks began to emerge between the relationship and order of command with military officials and now-Chancellor Skolas. The Royal Seran Air Force's Marshall, Servius Agrippa, said "I respect the Chancellor - I always have. He was a career military man and it's commendable what he wants to do. However, from a tactical standpoint, it's insanity. He ordered us to flagrantly inform the enemy of our impending military operation and is giving them time to reinforce their own positions; siege and blockades be damned. The blood of Seran troops will be on his hands and the fact that the Army Marshal refuses to speak out against this compromised operation is appalling. I stand by that."

War crimes

Numerous war crimes have been committed by the LDF rebel factions as well as Apatonian government forces during the civil war.

In April 2018, Lutharian observers claimed LDF forces summarily executed dozens of civilians in two towns (Guyab and Robo) they controlled in Lundia.

On October 24th 2021, the Lundia Defense Forces were accused by the CCA Human Rights Council and Lutharian observers of extrajudicially killing 400–500 villagers in the town of Dori. A visit by the Tofino Times found many unburied corpses, some in military clothing. Residents said that LDF forces had killed villagers who had resisted looting but also blamed Apatonian federal forces for abandoning the villagers to defend themselves unaided.

On November 4th, 2021, Caspiaan watchdogs issued an emergency alert stating that "both sides are committing genocide", referring to detentions of thousands of people based on Ista or Kjanta ethnic identity, and arguing that "Prime Minister Michel Lukonde's hate speech and calls for war" and that the "LDF is perpetrating conflict with no regard for hiding their atrocities."