Gylian federal election, 1976: Difference between revisions
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| map_caption = Plurality of [[Gylian Chamber of Deputies|deputies]] by [[Regions of Gylias|region]]*<br>{{colorbox|{{G-RR/meta/color}}|border=darkgray}} {{G-RR | | map_caption = Plurality of [[Gylian Chamber of Deputies|deputies]] by [[Regions of Gylias|region]]*<br>{{colorbox|{{G-RR/meta/color}}|border=darkgray}} {{G-RR/meta/shortname}} {{colorbox|{{G-LU/meta/color}}|border=darkgray}} {{G-LU/meta/shortname}} {{colorbox|{{G-NB/meta/color}}|border=darkgray}} {{G-NB/meta/shortname}} {{colorbox|{{Independent politician/meta/color}}|border=darkgray}} {{G-NI/meta/shortname}} {{colorbox|white|border=darkgray}} Tie<br><small>* ([[Salxar Region|SL]], [[Makarces Region|MK]], [[Gacar Region|GC]], and [[Gerşyr Region|GE]] counted together as two ''circonscriptions'')</small> | ||
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Revision as of 07:27, 29 April 2020
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All 395 seats in the Chamber of Deputies All 400 seats in the Senate 198 Chamber of Deputies seats and 201 Senate seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 94,9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Federal elections were held in Gylias on 22 January 1976, to elect the 395 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 400 members of the Senate.
Expected frontrunner Aliska Géza's death a week before the campaign started threw the election into disarray. The demoralised Progressive Alliance–Liberal Union alliance suffered a defeat at the hands of rising political forces like the conservative National Bloc and statist communist Revolutionary Rally. The subsequent formation of a fractious RR–PA coalition under Aén Ďanez is considered to mark the start of Gylias' wretched decade.
Electoral system
Both chambers of the Gylian Parliament were elected through single transferable vote, using the Droop quota.
The Chamber of Deputies was elected using 5-member circonscriptions, drawn by Elections Gylias based on regional populations.
The Senate was elected by regions, each electing 20 senators.
Parties were not allowed to nominate more than one candidate per seat. Candidates were not allowed to run for both chambers simultaneously.
Parties
Background
By the 1970s, the Golden Revolution and Gylian consensus had become settled. With much of the work of social revolution now bearing fruit amid a booming economy, the Darnan Cyras government largely receded into a background role of goading revolutionary sentiments. The 2nd Parliament's term was comparatively less active, with its main achievement being the creation of regional governments. The growing distance between the parliamentary and popular wings of the Progressive Alliance was identified by Jessica Freeman as a key problem as the election approached.
The dissolution of the Conservative Coalition finally put an end to the "constructive"–"recalcitrant" war that had plagued Gylian conservatism since the Liberation War. The formation of the National Bloc united the progressive conservative mainstream into a a principal vehicle, and confirmed the destruction of social conservatism in public life. Following good performances in local and presidential elections in 1970–1974, there was considerable expectation that the NB would mount a serious challenge at the next presidential election.
Maria Elena Durante's death in 1972 prompted the collapse of her left-wing populist Movement for Emancipation and Democracy. Due to its previous success winning support from voters skeptical of the Golden Revolution but not reactionary, its demise left a void, which was exploited by marginalised blocs.
With Darnan Cyras planning to retire at the end of his term, his deputy Aliska Géza increasingly stepped into the spotlight as a successor-in-waiting. Her election as General Secretary of the Democratic Communist Party in 1974 and several foreign visits over the next 2 years consolidated her perception as the next Prime Minister. Her death on 26 December 1975 shocked the public and threw the entire election into disarray.
Campaign
The loss of Aliska, and her grief-stricken colleagues declining to take her place, meant the Progressive Alliance went into the election without a foresitter. In the absence of agreed leadership or a unified theme, member parties ran their own campaigns with little coordination, reducing their effectiveness. Sofia Westergaard, then Delkora's ambassador to Gylias, commented, "To see such a self-assured and high-minded group of legislators regress to stumbling amateurs is one of the sorriest spectacles I've ever been had to witness."
The disarray of the PA affected their Liberal Union coalition partners as well, with familiarity now working against them. Meanwhile, the Centre Group found itself pushed to the centre and deprived of the centre-right support it had earned before the National Bloc was formed.
The atmosphere of uncertainty benefited formations that focsed on messages of continuity rather than change. The National Bloc played down policy, promising to uphold the Gylian consensus, and ran a campaign based on personality; their glamorous and charismatic leader Lea Kersed featured prominently in their PPBs. While Lea enjoyed high personal popularity during the campaign, her goal was to avoid a Beatrice Albini fate, and obtain the breakthrough that had eluded Sasa Ruişela.
Surprisingly, the demoralised character of the campaign benefited the previously marginalised Revolutionary Rally. Its leader Aén Ďanez adopted the left-wing populist rhetoric and approach that Maria Elena Durante had previously refined, avoiding social issues entirely to focus on economics. Aén's somber rhetoric struck a chord with voters alienated by the PA's perceived focus on social engineering. The RR's rise in opinion polls in turn caused a slight increase in support for the Front for Renewal of Order and Society, concentrated in the Anti-Communist Freedom Front.
Among Non-inscrits, the LSD Party defied the somber atmosphere of the election with their typical humorous campaigning and proposals, one of which was to redistribute voting preferences from each according to their ability, to each according to their need. The Green Party, established in 1972, was making its federal debut after good performances in municipal and regional elections. Their eco-socialist platform verged on green anarchism, and they gained a reputation as uncompromising firebrands.
The last opinion polls before election silence went into effect showed a tight race between the PA and RR, with the NB trailing closely in third place.
Results
In accordance with electoral law, the results were embargoed until the full counting and transfers were completed, and were released all at once on 27 January.
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| Parties and blocs | Chamber of Deputies | Senate | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPV | % | ± | Seats | ± | FPV | % | ± | Seats | ± | ||
| Revolutionary Rally | 1.491.438 | 21,2% |  19,7%
|
84 | 82
|
869.898 | 12,3% |  10,8%
|
39 | 39
| |
| Progressive Alliance | 1.482.475 | 21,0% | 11,7%
|
84 | 5
|
1.688.262 | 23,9% | 6,5%
|
66 | 24
| |
| National Bloc | 1.348.847 | 19,1% | New | 60 | New | 1.068.063 | 15,1% | New | 55 | New | |
| Non-inscrits and independents | 1.183.257 | 16,8% | 4,6%
|
99 | 23
|
1.626.034 | 23,1% | 3,3%
|
125 | 33
| |
| Liberal Union | 786.188 | 11,2% | 13,4%
|
35 | 22
|
963.248 | 13,7% | 9,8%
|
61 | 23
| |
| Centre Group | 722.863 | 10,3% | 8,3%
|
32 | 27
|
793.491 | 11,3% | 5,9%
|
50 | 18
| |
| Front for Renewal of Order and Society | 33.126 | 0,5% | 0,3%
|
1 | 
|
41.334 | 0,6% | 0,5%
|
4 | 4
| |
| Total | 7.048.194 | 100% | — | 395 | 110
|
7.050.330 | 100% | — | 400 | — | |
| Registered voters and turnout | 7.503.505 | 94,9% | |||||||||
Analysis
The RR won a plurality of first preference votes, with less than 9.000 separating it from the second-placed PA. Both blocs tied for seats in the Chamber of Deputies, while the RR performed worse in the Senate, becoming the second-smallest group. The NB performed respectably and finished third overall, winning 19% of first preference votes for the Chamber of Deputies. However, Lea noted that the result reflected how much it still had to do to win over voters: it won 60 deputies and 55 seats, a tally comparable to the CG's performance in 1969.
It was an election of strong swings in support. The least affected were the Non-inscrits, who lost nearly 5% of first preferences in the Chamber of Deputies and 3% in the Senate, largely due to the emergence of the new blocs. Among non-inscrits, the New People's Party was badly affected by the collapse of its previous alliance with the Movement for Emancipation and Democracy, and the Green Party came up one seat short of the LSD Party, but overall there was no clear trend favouring either left or right non-inscrits. The worst affected were the PA and Liberal Union, who lost over 10% of first preference votes.
While still polling under 1%, the FROS managed to enter the Senate for the first time, as the Anti-Communist Freedom Front won 4 seats due to a backlash against the RR.
At the regional level, the RR won the northern circonscriptions and cut into the PA's support in mainland Gylias. There were several two- and three-way ties between the RR, PA, and non-inscrits, notably in Mişeyáke, Nezyál, and Herlan. The LU's collapse in support caused them to finish second in Arxaþ and Alţira behind non-inscrits, and they narrowly held onto a plurality in Elena by one seat. Nerveiík-Iárus-Daláyk switched en masse to the NB, and provided all its seats. The CG, by contrast, won seats in the mainland for the first time — notably coming third in Elena.
Aftermath
When the new Parliament was sworn in on 1 February 1976, there was no obvious government that could be formed. The resigning Darnan Cyras government remained as caretaker until negotiations concluded.
Aén's first proposal was a coalition with the PA, which failed. The PA was given the mandate to form a government next. With the previous PA–LU coalition having been decimated, they explored the options of broadening it to include the CG or joining with the left non-inscrits, but neither option could guarantee a majority. Lea proposed a PA–LU–CG–NB grand coalition, which was unsuccessful due to arguments over who would become Prime Minister and the PA ranks not being comfortable entering a coalition with the centre-right.
Gradually, the PA became open to a coalition with the RR, mainly in the hopes of "restraining" the RR for one term in office until the next election. They drove a hard bargain and Aén was forced to make numerous concessions, including leaving important cabinet posts to the PA, and seeking support from left non-inscrits. Altogether, these negotiations succeeded, and the Aén Ďanez government was sworn in on 5 March 1976. It was a minority coalition including the RR, PA, and Independent Regional Alliance for Minorities, and relied on outside support from the Free Land Party, Urban Movement, Green Party, New People's Party, and Renewal and Justice Union.
The election is commonly seen as the end of the Golden Revolution and the start of the wretched decade. The manner in which the coalition was constituted created great bitterness: the PA were determined to box in the RR and defeat them at the next election, while Aén held a grudge against the PA and sought to undermine them in office. The struggle would ultimately consume nearly a decade.
