Percederation
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Percederation is the general trend marking the decline of centre-right conservative political parties in Euclea since 2015. These parties, which traditionally have represented the right of Euclean politics, have seen a significant drop in support. Some parties have hit historic lows in support while others have disbanded entirely. The decline in support for traditional centre-right parties has been accompanied by an increase in support for centrist or nationalist, right wing populist parties. It is believed to be a contributing factor to the Pink Wave, a shift towards centre-left social democratic parties.
The name comes from the Vespasian per cedere, meaning yield. It originated after the collapse of the Etrurian Federalist Party in 2016, who were supplanted by the nationalist, right-wing Tribune Movement. Since then, it has been applied more broadly as centre-right parties throughout Euclea experienced decline. It has also been used to describe shifts within parties, away from centre-right politics towards right-wing politics.
In Eastern Euclea
Azmara
The performance of the Centre Party has sometimes been cited as an example of percederation - in the 2020 election, the party received a result of 10.4% of the vote and 16 seats, its worst ever performance since its 1950 formation and the first time since 1951 that the party has won less than 20 seats in the Folksmot.
However, this has been disputed as an example of percederation for two major reasons - the first being the relative success of Gold Flame, another party of the centre-right who while remaining in opposition managed to make significant gains from a poor 2017 result, displacing the Centre Party as the second-largest party in their traditional stronghold of Westmaark. The second was a common analysis that the poor result for the Centre Party was due to a misguided and poorly implemented shift towards more right-wing populist stances on many issues which failed to strike a chord with many voters. It is therefore analysed as a switch by centre-right voters in much of Azmara towards the more liberal, small-business focused politics of Gold Flame leader Freidrik Aleksaanderssun.
The analysis has also been disputed due to the party's revival under the leadership of Henrik Jorśsun, gaining 10 seats in the 2023 election and re-entering government under Aleksaanderssun's leadership, yet some have cited the populist stances the party took in the election campaign as evidence in favour of percederation.
Caldia
The Liberty Party began its decline in 2018, which culminated in its historic defeat in 2019. After forming the post government's in Caldia's post-war history, the party only won 18.4% of the vote and 89 seats. This was a major defeat for the party, which had never before fallen below 22.5%. The party's decline was largely attributed to the scandals of taoisigh Simi Ó Raghallaigh and Proin Casarnach. The party attempted a shift to the right under Pádraig Mac Piarais, but saw historic defeats in local elections under his leadership. For a time, the party fell into third place behind the National Party in opinion polls. It has lost support to the National Party and the liberal Caldish Democrats, matching the greater trend of percederation.
Estmere
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The extent to which percederation has taken place in Estmere is subject to debate, though there is evidence suggesting that parts of the political right have moved in centrist and right-wing directions respectively. The Sotirian Democratic Union has remained the dominant party of the right, and is still considered centre-right, but there have been challenges to it's dominance, and it has moved to the right on a number of issues.
In the 2016 general election, a right-wing populist and Euclosceptic party known as Estmere First scored 13% of the party preference vote, largely winning over disaffected SDU voters. This was seen as a reaction to the liberal conservatism of party leader Richard Graham, who had strongly Euclophillic views. The rise of Estmere First led to a revival of right-wing politics in Estmere, and Graham was succeeded as leader in 2018 by Reginald Wilton-Smyth, who was himself considered a right-wing populist. Wilton-Smyth was seen to bring the party further to the right on social and economic issues, and began to engage more directly in culture war issues. In the ensuing 2018 general election, Estmere First fell back and the SDU regained many voters who had left it. This was seen as stalling the SDU's decline among many right-wing voters, and the Wilton-Smyth government managed to keep the centrist and right-wing elements of the SDU coalition at bay for some time. Wilton-Smyth's leadership eventually, however, led to the party's defeat in the 2021 general election, in which the opposition Progressive Social Democrats led by Zoe Halivar won a number of traditionally SDU seats in the suburbs which were alienated by Wilton-Smyth's social conservatism and economic mismanagement. The party's defeat was accentuated by the rise of new parties competing for the centre and centre-right vote, such as Vox Estmere and the Centre Party, which made gains in the election at the SDU's expense.
The SDU's defeat in the 2021 election was seen as a repudiation of Wilton-Smyth's right-wing project, and his successor as SDU leader was the more moderate Tristan Gardner, who comes from the Sotirian democrat tradition within the party. That being said, the strong performance of Rob Walker, considered a more avowed right-wing populist, in the December leadership election shows that there remains an appetite for that type of politics in Estmere and in the SDU. In addition, while the SDU lost the 2021 election, the party made inroads in a number of seats in which it had not previously been competitive. Gardner's strategy as leader has been to try balance the right-wing populist and centrist elements of the SDU's coalition, while winning back suburban voters. It remains to be seen whether this will lead to the rise of newer parties as part of percederation.
Etruria
The centre-right in Etruria has been dominated by Sotirian democratic political parties, Libertas during the Etrurian Third Republic and the Etrurian Federalist Party (PFE) during the Fourth (1983-present). The PFE together with the centre-left Social Democratic Party constituted the "poteri maggiore" (major powers) of Etrurian politics following the restoration of democracy in 1983, both serving together in two instances through a grand coalition and in opposition to one another. However, the PFE would win the popular vote in federal elections but would lose out to the SD during coalition negotiations as was the case in 1989 and 2005. In 2009 the PFE won the federal election under Urbano Onoforio on a traditional Sotirian democratic platform, but would be forced to resign two years later over a sex scandal, he was succeeded by Emiliano Reali his Deputy President, this change in leadership would mark the beginning of Percederation.
Percederation according to Etrurian commentators and analysts began as early as 2013, following the founding of the Tribune Movement a year prior. The ascension of Deputy President Emiliano Reali to the presidency is widely perceived to mark the beginning of Percederation in Etruria owing to the drift toward a more secular liberal conservatism, a more aggressive drive for EC membership and neoliberal economic policy, this was also coupled with announced drives toward supporting future same-sex marriage and limiting the influence of the Solarian Catholic Church in social and political matters. According to Giacomo D'Rossi, a prominent author of Percederation thinking argued that as the PFE moved leftward, it abandoned the once hegemonic position through social conservative Sotirian democracy, this created vital space for a capable rival right-wing party to emerge. He also claims that the belief that Percederation began in 2016 creates a false narrative, citing the results of several local elections and state elections in Carinthia, Aeolia and Palestrina between 2013 and 2015, which saw either the Tribune Movement win outright itself, or come a close second behind the PFE. D'Rossi's first indication of Percederation was the PFE's defeat in the 2013 Solaria municipal elections, where it lost Etruria's largest city for the first time since 1983 to the Tribune candidate, Aurelio Quintano Alessandri.
The Tribune Movement between 2012 and 2016 operated on a relatively moderate platform, adopting social conservatism, anti-elitism, anti-corruption and populism. It championed itself as the best option for working and lower-middle class voters who had grown disenchanted with Etruria's political mainstream, which they depicted as corrupt, elitist and detached from their reality of stagnant wages, declining living standards, poor services and little social mobility.
In the 2013 federal election, the vote shares of the PFE and SD fell by 16% and 19% respectively, with the PFE securing just 28.40% of the vote, its lowest result since 1983. It won 223 seats, forcing the party into a grand coalition with its nominal rival, the SDP. Though the Tribune Movement which won 16% of the vote consumed votes from the PFE, the primary beneficiary of the PFE's vote collapse was the centrist Citizens' Alliance, while the Tribunes' biggest gains were working class votes traditionally held by the SDP. However, between 2013 and 2016, the PFE would lose successive municipal elections to the Tribune Movement, including Povelia, Turania and Carxeri. However, the steadily decline in support for the PFE continued as the primary condition of the grand coalition - a referendum on EC membership pushed further eucloskeptic and lower-middle class voters toward the Tribunes. According to several studies conducted in 2015, almost 80% of the PFE's working class voters who supported it in 2013 would likely defect to the Tribunes at the next election. The total collapse of the PFE came in 2016, with the breaking of the Miraviglia corruption scandal that involved the near entirety of the party's senior leadership and a number of federal ministers including those from the SDP. The scandal broke in the middle of the EC membership referendum and was quickly seized upon by the Tribune Movement in both attacking EC membership and the mainstream parties. Ultimately, the Etrurian people rejected EC membership, forcing the resignation of President Emiliano Reali and the calling of a snap election by his successor Andrea Salvini. That August, the PFE and SDP were devastated in the federal election with the Tribune Movement alone winning 42% of the popular vote and over 300 seats, enabling it to enter into government the agrarian and social conservative Farmers and Workers Union. The PFE won only 11.8% of the vote and was reduced to XX seats, its worst result since its founding in 1983, and the worst result for any centre-right party in Etrurian history.
Following its 2016 defeat, the party witnessed an exodus of members, donors and employees. In early 2017, Democratic Alternative for Etruria was established a splinter sotirian democratic party that sought to renew the centre-right and build a viable rival to the hard-right Tribune government. That year, the Tribune Movement won the state election in Torazza relegating the PFE to fourth place with 5.6% of the vote, within three weeks of the Torazza defeat, the PFE officially dissolved and its remaining lawmakers and members merged with Democratic Alternative. However, despite the creation of a new centre-right party, the Tribune Movement would continue to "hold a hegemonic grip" over the Etrurian right. In the 2018 Etrurian federal election, the DAE recorded a poor result, only winning 43 seats, though the party would continue to operate it would dissolve in 2021 and was succeeded by the Sotirian People's Force, which in turn was created by a number of Tribune defectors, who left the party over the 2021 Etrurian constitutional referendum. The SPF enter the 2021 Etrurian federal election with 55 senators, but would lose 51 seats to the Tribune Movement. Since the federal election, the SPF, the only centre-right party in the Etrurian senate has been polling on average 5%.
Gaullica
- Historical precedent with the downfall of 'Truth and Justice for a New Democracy' during the 1980s despite historical success, paving way for centre-right to be filled by 'Gaullican Conservatives'.
- Splintering of the centre-right over economic and social liberals and traditional conservatives leads to the formation of the PRCP.
Kesselbourg
The Ecologist Party won a majority in the General Election of 2019 as a center-right party that endorsed many policies of the center-left, such as environmentalism, sustainable energy and political transparency. However, support for the government of Prime Minister Wout Wanser-Plas has declined in the years following the election, due to various controversies and scandals surrounding Wanser-Plas and the Ecologist Party. As a result, the party has drifted further to the right, with Wanser-Plas endorsing policies more common among the right-wing, such as restrictions on immigration, tax cuts for corporations and protections for rural areas against urban sprawl. This ongoing shift away from the center-right towards the far-right is indicative of a general trend of percederation.
Paretia
The first New Democracy government of Premier Marcelo Simões only controlled the government by 2 seats. After the 2005 Recession the once-Euclosceptic ND began to feel pressure on maintaining control against the resurging Social Democrats and Progressive Paretia Party, and began to shift policy more towards attracting the center, adopting a pro-Euclean Community stance with economic and social liberal policies. After the 2005 Paretian general election the ND needed to form an coalition to maintain control, and formed a large coalition of over 5 parties, it was extremely diverse, with liberal conservatives, sotirian democrats, regionalists, and social conservatives making up the alliance.
In 2008 the SD won and Felipe Pascoal was Premier until 2011, despite being the largest party, the UC once again formed a large coalition with Together for Liberty, Catholic Citizens, and others under Vasco Gonçalves. The euclosceptic populist wing of the ND felt greatly alienated from the party's leadership and split off into the right-wing Patron League in 2013. Another populist party, Alternative Party, formed in 2015. The Patrons grew over the next two elections and in 2017 the Gonçalves coalition would be forced to have the LP enter over threat of the Social Democrats forming a government. In the 2020 elections the LP grew even more, and threatened to leave the coalition if Gonçalves didn't resign, and they would have independent populist Isilda Cerqueira take over.
Cerqueira's first year saw the LP and ND split further apart as her agenda could not be passed due to the ND. In 2021 Cerqueira joined the LP and called a snap election, the party ran on a campaign centered around what it's leaders call "the old parties", and defeat the Pink Wave. The Patron League won 45% of the vote in the 2021 Paretian general election, this was greatly aided by the 2021 Trovão elections scandal which tainted the reputations of the other parties, especially the UC and SD. They would form an alliance with the Alt Party, known as O Povo. The ND and JpL reached historic lows, the former only holding one seat in the whole Senate, later that year the two parties united into Democratic Alignment, a centrist pro-EC party. Paretia's shift to the right is a notable example of percederation. The Alt Party and LP united to form Acima in 2022. In 2023 New Democracy was reformed by it's founder's son, Jorge Cabral Pacheco and has a more right-wing platform than before and is allied with Acima.
Piraea
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The term "percederation" in Piraea has been used by the media more recently to describe the political results of the People's Party since the collapse of the Evangelos Polakis government in 2007, which gave its rival, the Piraese Socialist Workers Union, its largest majority ever and stable 6 years of government under Zervakos' leadership and later Theopeftatou and Panopoulos. The People’s Party has, since 2007, maintained as second option in Piraea, but has struggled to expand its voters base and leading margin. As a difference with other Euclean centre-right parties, the percederation of the People's Party did not cause the emergence of far-right parties, but several liberal and anti-corruption escicions, such as Democrats and Change.
After the resign of Polakis as leader of the People's Party, the traditional Piraean centre-right party sought the election of new leaders, with Gerasimos Miskopoulos holding the position until 2019, when Georgios Konstantinou assumed the leadership. Media and political analysts agree that Konstantinou is braking with the percederation of the party, as approaching the 2022 Piraean general election the People's Party is seeing a positive increase in polls.
Elsewhere
Asterian Federative Republic
The rise of the Forward Party in the late 1990s and early 2000s in the AFR has been retroactively considered by some political scholars such as Breno Padilha as being an early example of what would become known as Percederation. Throughout the 1990s, the main opposition to the AFR's ruling center-left Farmer-Labour Party was the Federal Republican Party, a socially and economically conservative party. The FRP was the second-largest party at the AFR 1990 General Election, winning 126 in the House of Deputies and 19 in the Asterian Federal Assembly and forming the opposition to the governing coalition. In the 1995 election the FRP's number of seats halved in the House of Deputies and was reduced by a third in the Asterian Federal Assembly, with the seats being taken by the far-right Regenerator Party and the populist right-wing Foward Party. By 2000, the FRP only gained 5.4% of the vote, a fall from 21% in 1990 to 8% in 2000. The FRP was a junior partner in the governing conservative coalition until it was absorbed into the PA after the 2005 election.
Tengaria
Although Tengaria does not officially have political parties and is largely authoritarian, a similar effect has been cited by some scholars as being applicable under the same effect. During the presidency Dimitri Kovachev from 1983 to 2014, the "Pragmatist" faction of the Patriotic Union effective power over Tengaria. Although still largely conservative and right-wing, it promoted more moderate and centrist policies than those of Simeon Kovachev's presidency, including reforms which made Tengaria more in line with modern regimes. During this time as well, more centrist political groups promoting democratic reform were able to get some seats within the Senate, and the influence of the Patriotic Union was in decline. After Dimitri's death in 2014, his daughter Teodora Kovacheva took control of the Presidency, and began to bring the Union into more right-wing politics, bringing the "Purist" faction into power and increasing the use of right-wing rhetoric. Since then, the Patriotic Union has increasingly been pushing right-wing policies and regaining its political influence, which have lead some scholars to consider it to be undergoing Percederation.