Gylian federal election, 2020
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All 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies 251 Chamber of Deputies seats seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 95,2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Federal elections were held in Gylias on 22 January 2020, to elect the 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies.
Foreign policy unexpectedly became a major issue in the election, owing to Æþurheim's civil war. Major gains were obtained by anarchist parties, particularly Non-inscrits. The incumbent Toni Vallas government lost ground to the conservative opposition, and Lena Haidynraix became Prime Minister at the head of a centre-right government tolerated by anarchist parties in exchange for a stronger stance on Æþurheim.
Electoral system
The Chamber of Deputies was elected through single transferable vote, using the Droop quota and 5-member circonscriptions, drawn by Elections Gylias based on regional populations.
Parties were not allowed to nominate more than one candidate per seat. Candidates were not allowed to serve in the Senate simultaneously.
Parties
Background
Compared to her match-ups against Stéphanie Daniau in 2012 and 2016, Toni Vallas found herself facing a stronger rival in the new National Bloc leader Lena Haidynraix. Polls heading into the election showed them neck-and-neck.
In contrast to the usually domestic focus of federal elections, foreign policy unexpectedly became a major issue with the start of Æþurheim's civil war. Non-inscrits grew in popularity and took a lead over established electoral blocs, leading to speculation whether they could repeat their victory from 30 years before.
Campaign
On the domestic side of the campaign, Lena emphasised her green conservatism and agreed with Toni's efforts to transform Gylias into a circular economy, with the main difference being the methods suggested to that end. Ironically, some analysts noted that by abandoning her predecessor's criticisms of Toni's support for degrowth, Lena increased her appeal among younger voters.
The Æþurheim issue festered during the campaign. Serving government deputies, particularly from the Democratic Communist Party, were challenged by anarchist non-inscrits to take a stronger line on support of Æþurian anarcho-syndicalists. Toni defended herself by arguing that it would be difficult to get the entire Common Sphere to support them.
The campaign was overshadowed by the "brawl on Sofia Westergaard Street", which happened on 20 January. A large protest in front of Æþurheim's embassy, on Sofia Westergaard Street in Mişeyáke, turned into a battle between rock-throwing protesters and tear gas-firing Æþurian embassy guards. The government had to declare an emergency and deploy Popular Guards, who entered the embassy grounds by force to arrest the Æþurian guards.
Parties were unable to respond to the riot as the election silence period of 48 hours was already in effect. The last two days before Election Day saw the resulting diplomatic spat between Gylias and Æþurheim dominate the news. Chancellor Monika Schefer condemned the Popular Guards' intervention as a "hostile act" and "violation of diplomatic immunity"; Toni retorted that the guards had forfeited their diplomatic immunity by firing tear gas at Gylians.
Results
In accordance with electoral law, the results were embargoed until the full counting and transfers were completed, and were released all at once on 24 January.
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| Parties and blocs | Chamber of Deputies | |||||
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| FPV | % | ± | Seats | ± | ||
| Non-inscrits and independents | 5.657.394 | 29,6% |  9,4%
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258 | 73
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| National Bloc | 3.765.225 | 19,7% | 
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68 |  17
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| Progressive Alliance | 3.707.886 | 19,4% | 5,4%
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68 | 20
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| Liberal Union | 3.038.938 | 15,9% | 5,0%
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52 | 24
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| Centre Group | 2.790.471 | 14,6% | 1,3%
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54 | 10
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| Revolutionary Rally | 76.451 | 0,4% |
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0 |
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| Union for Freedom and Prosperity | 57.338 | 0,3% | 0,3%
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0 | 2
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| Front for Renewal of Order and Society | 19.113 | 0,1% |
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0 |
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| Total | 19.112.816 | 100% | — | 500 | — | |
| Registered voters and turnout | 20.242.476 | 95,2% | ||||
Analysis
The final result was a triumph for Non-inscrits: they won 29,4% of first preference votes, an even larger plurality than their 1990 victory, and won 258 seats in total, 3 more than their 1990 high-water mark. Some commentators speculated about a return of the "liquid Parliament" of the 1990s.
Post-poll surveys showed many voters had been outraged by the "brawl on Sofia Westergaard Street", and voted for anarchist non-inscrits specifically to "stand up to Æþurheim".
The non-inscrit surge came at the expense of both government and opposition. The PA and LU's first preference votes declined by 5% to 5,4%, and they lost 20–24 seats. The NB finished second with 19,7% of first preference votes, the same share it won in 2016, and a loss of 17 seats. The Centre Group increased its first preference vote by 1,3% and lost only 10 seats.
The Union for Freedom and Prosperity lost its two seats after decades of eroding support, and was shut out of Parliament for the first time since its establishment.
On the map, the non-inscrits gained pluralities in Mişeyáke, Tomes, Herlan, and Tandar, overturning ties or PA pluralities. The NB found itself largely confined to its southern Gylian stronghold, although they notably managed to achieve a tie in Envadra.
Aftermath
The new Parliament was sworn in on 1 February 2020, with no clear government. Neither the NB–CG formation nor the incumbent coalition could muster a majority. The non-inscrits, especially the anarchists, were now in a kingmaker role.
Both Toni as the incumbent Prime Minister and Lena as the Leader of the Opposition negotiated intensely with the non-inscrits to secure their support in the days between the results' release and the new Parliament taking office. Ultimately, however, it became clear that Lena made greater concessions, mainly on the issue of foreign policy.
The Toni Vallas government lost the first motion of confidence, with a 232–232 tie and many non-inscrits abstaining. Afterwards, Lena received the mandate to form a government. She proposed a minority coalition of the NB, CG, UNR, and IRAM, that would mainly rely on supply and confidence from the FVU, PP-CM, RFS, and UI.
The Lena Haidynraix government was approved with a narrow majority — at the cost of "outsourcing its foreign policy to the anarchists", as The National Inquirer quipped.
