2021 Estmerish general election

2021 Estmerish general election

27 May 2021
All 600 seats in the Chamber of Commons 301 seats needed for a majority
Leader Reginald Wilton-Smyth Zoe Halivar Esther Bennett Party SDU SDCP Reform Leader since 23 April 2018 22 May 2016 11 October 2014 Leader's seat Newchurch and Harrendole Harbrough Hillside Tolbury Outer Last election 216 187 101 Current seats 215 184 99 Seats needed 86 117 202   Leader George Avery Sara Hall-Brookes (Lead Candidate) Aelfwin Stringer Party Estmere First Greens Party of the Swathish Leader since 11 August 2018 7 April 2015 15 August 2009 Leader's seat Bouley North East Tendersea Holdenshire Wilds Last election 35 29 15 Current seats 29 29 15 Seats needed 272 272 286
Incumbent Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth SDU

The 2021 Estmerish general election will be held on 27 May 2021. It is a snap election, called by Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth. All 600 Members of Parliament in the Chamber of Commons will be elected.

Following 2018, the next election was not scheduled until 2022. Reginald Wilton-Smyth made the call for a snap election on 14 April 2021, and Parliament voted in favour on 15 April. Campaigning unofficially began with the start of purdah on 18 April, but the campaign officially began with the dissolution of Parliament on 25 April. The ruling Sotirian Democratic Union led by Wilton-Smyth, their coalition partners the Reform Party led by Esther Bennett and the Social Democratic and Co-operative Party under Zoe Halivar are considered the main parties running in the election.

Minor national parties running in the election include Estmere First led by George Avery, the Greens led by Sara Hall-Brookes and Nathan Coutanche, and ESWI led by Ted Barnes, while relevant regionalist parties include the Party of the Swathish led by Aelfwin Stringer and the Aldman Democratic Alliance led by Annika Schröder. A number of new parties are also contesting the election, such as Vox Estmere, future.es and the Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party.

Polling day is 27 May, and full results are likely to be announced 28 May after list votes have been taken into account.

Background

Gambled pensions scandal

Main article: Estmerish missing pensions scandal

Mortimer's leadership challenge

Main article: 2021 Sotirian Democratic Union leadership election

Electoral system

Elections to the Chamber of Commons use the Additional Member System, or AMS for short. AMS is a mixed system that is semi-proportional. Voters have two votes. One vote for a local constituency, and one vote for their preferred party in a nation-wide party list. List seats are allocated through the Boeri method, with the winners of the constituency seats taken into account.

To be eligible for list seats, parties must pass an electoral threshold of 2.5% of the vote.

There are 600 total elected members of the Chamber. Of these, 400 members are elected through first-past-the-post constituency seats, with the remaining 200 members elected through party list.

301 seats are required for a majority. The party that recieves the most votes usually forms the government, but due to the proportional nature of the system it is unlikely for a single party to recieve a majority on its own. As such, coalition governments and minority government are common, and it is possible for the largest party to be excluded from government.

The 2021 election will use the constituency boundaries first drawn for the 2012 general election. This will be the fourth general election to use these constituency boundaries. The constituencies are overdue for a boundary review, with new boundaries legally-required before 2022, and so it is likely this will be the last general election to use these constituency boundaries.

Voting eligibility

In order to vote in the election, voters had to meet the criteria to be considered eligible, and register to vote before midnight 13 May, two weeks prior to polling day. Eligible voters had to be;

• aged 18 or older on polling day
• an Estmerish or Euclean Community citizen
• permanently resident in Estmere, or owning property in Estmere
• not excluded due to legal reasons, such as;
  • being convicted of a crime or being in contempt of court
  • being an apolitical member of the Chamber of Peers

Voters could be registered to multiple constituencies through multiple residences, but can only vote in one constituency. Overseas voters vote as if living at their last Estmerish address.

Timetable

Key dates in the election are listed below:

14 April 2021	Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth announced his intention to hold a snap election
15 April 2021	Bill to dissolve Parliament for an early election passes the Chamber of Commons
18 April 2021	Purdah begins
25 April 2021	Parliament is officially dissolved for the election by President Alice Roberts
25 April 2021	Campaigning officialy begins
28 April 2021	First televised debate
29 April 2021	Deadline for party list nominations
30 April 2021	Deadline for constituency candidate nominations
12 May 2021	Last day to register to vote
27 May 2021	Polling day
28 May 2021	Preliminary election results announced
1 June 2021	Official election results announced
3 June 2021	First meeting of the next Parliament

Parties

Main article: List of political parties in Estmere

At the end of the 2018 parliament, eight political parties had representation in the Chamber of Commons. The three largest parties in Estmere are the Sotirian Democratic Union, the Social Democratic and Co-operative Party and the Reform Party, together comprising just under 85% of the seats in the Chamber, and it is widely expected that these parties will come out on top after the election.

Other relevant national parties include Estmere First, the Greens and the Estmerish Section of the Workers' International, all of which currently have Parliamentary representation. A number of smaller, newer parties are also contesting a national election for the first time, including Vox Estmere, future.es and the Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party. Two regionalist parties, the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, are contesting a select number of constituency seats based on the distribution of Swathish and Aldman speakers respectively.

Name		Ideology	Leader(s)	2018 general election result			Seats at dissolution
				Votes (%)		Seats
				Constituency	Party list
	Sotirian Democratic Union	Conservatism Sotirian democracy	Reginald Wilton-Smyth	36.8	35.6	216 / 600	215 / 600
	Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Social democracy Democratic socialism	Zoe Halivar	33.7	30.9	187 / 600	184 / 600
	Reform Party	Liberalism Social liberalism	Esther Bennett	15.8	16.7	101 / 600	99 / 600
	Estmere First	Right-wing populism Estmerish nationalism	George Avery	4.3	5.8	35 / 600	29 / 600
	Greens	Green politics Progressivism	Sara Hall-Brookes Nathan Coutanche	3.9	4.9	29 / 600	29 / 600
	Party of the Swathish	Swathish nationalism Social democracy	Aelfwin Stringer	2.5	2.6	15 / 600	15 / 600
	Estmerish Section of the Workers' International	Council socialism Anti-capitalism	Ted Barnes	2.0	2.5	15 / 600	14 / 600
	Aldman Democratic Alliance	Aldman regionalism Social liberalism	Annika Schröder	0.4	0.4	2 / 600	2 / 600
	Vox Estmere	Euclofederalism Social liberalism	Marcello Schipani Kat Rodham	–	–	Did not exist	0 / 600
	future.es	Future politics E-democracy	Nate Foreman	–	–	Did not exist	0 / 600
	Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party	Agrarianism Pensioners' interests	Dorris Tippery	–	–	Did not exist	0 / 600

Campaign

Television debates

A number of televeision debates were held. For all debates held on any channel or service run by the Estmerish Broadcasting Service, broadcasting regulations dictated that party leaders were invited only if they were standing across the country and already maintained seats in Parliament or had consistently, for at least three contintuous months, polled higher than the electoral threshold of 2.5% in opinion poll averages. This meant that the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, despite holding seats in Parliament, were not eligible to take part.

2021 Estmerish general election debates

Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	Subject	P  Present   S  Surrogate   NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee  INV Invited
				SDU	SDCP	Reform	Estmere First	Greens	ESWI	Ref.
27 April	EBS News	Emily Ford	Leaders' debate	P Wilton-Smyth	P Halivar	P Bennett	P Avery	P Hall-Brookes	P Barnes
30 April	NITV	Paul Shanelly	"Big three" leaders' debate	P Wilton-Smyth	P Halivar	P Bennett	NI	NI	NI

Endorsements

A number of organisations, individuals and newspapers have made endorsements on behalf of parties and individual candidates in the election.

Notably, a significant number of heads of governments of Euclean Community members nations associated with the Pink Wave made unprecedented interventions in the election to support their preferred candidate for Prime Minister, Zoe Halivar, and her party. This has been described as part of a 'federalisation' of Euclean politics.

Newspapers and magazines

National newspapers

Newspaper	Endorsement		Notes
The Chartist		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
Daily Times		Sotirian Democratic Union
Economic Review		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Advised readers "vote for the anti-SDU candidate most likely to win in your constituency". Supported Zoe Halivar to become PM.
The Express		Sotirian Democratic Union
Red Sunday		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
The Standard		None	Called for readers to vote for "moderate SDU candidates" to "push Mr Wilton-Smyth" to resign.
Witterite News		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party

National political magazines

Newspaper	Endorsement		Notes
May Day		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Left-wing political magazine
The Nation		Sotirian Democratic Union	Right-wing political magazine

Other national publications

Newspaper	Endorsement		Notes
Cultural Review		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Weekly culture and arts magazine
Mode		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Weekly fashion magazine
Reverb		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Bi-monthly rock music magazine
Teen Mode		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Weekly fashion magazine aimed at young people
Wow!		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Bi-monthly pop music magazine

Local newspapers

Newspaper	Endorsement		Notes
The Damesbridge Herald		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Weekly newspaper covering Damesbridgeshire
The Dunwich Echo		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Daily newspaper covering Dunwich and the wider Dunwich County
Flurland News		Sotirian Democratic Union	Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Flurland
The Morwall Chronicle		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Greater Morwall
St Richards Times		Sotirian Democratic Union	Daily newspaper covering the city of St Richards
The Swathish National		Party of the Swathish	Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Wealdland
Wealdland Post		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Wealdland

Foreign newspapers

Newspaper	Endorsement		Notes
The Continental		None	Advised readers to "vote for pro-Euclean candidates [and] parties".
The Hamptonshire Post		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Estmerish-language Alslandic newspaper.
The Norland Post		Social Democratic and Co-operative Party	Estmerish-language Borish newspaper.
Today		Sotirian Democratic Union	Estmerish-language version of Alslandic newspaper Hjoed.
Westhaven Journal		None	Estmerish-language Borish newspaper.

Individuals

Aldman Democratic Alliance

• Haiko Posthuma, Weranian politician and leader of the Aldman People's Party

Estmere First

• Alfred Boulanger, Gaullican politician and leader of the National Front

Reform Party

• Coralie Barreau, Gaullican politician and co-leader of the PRCP
• Zacharie Blanchard, Gaullican politician and co-leader of the PRCP
• Penny Dorchester, journalist and economist (Also endorsed the SDCP)
• Abigail Kynd, journalist
• Matt LePonde, journalist
• Jimmy O'Reilly, Caldish politician and former Taoiseach of Caldia

Social Democratic and Co-operative Party

• Sofija Anasdohter, Azmaran politician and incumbent Thingspeaker of Azmara
• Alexandra Aurelia, Amathian politician and leader of the League of Equalists and Democrats
• Baba Baba, indie rock band
• Andrew Bohn, Nuvanian politician and incumbent Chief Minister of Nuvania
• Len Dawson, journalist
• Monique Degar-Abdulrashid, Gaullican politician and incumbent President of Gaullica
• Desert Apes, rock band
• Auro De Maio, Etrurian-born actor
• Penny Dorchester, journalist and economist (Also endorsed the Reform Party)
• Ian Durras, rugby player
• Esmeralda Falcão, Paretian politician and leader of the Social Democrats of Paretia
• Jonathan Fraser, Alslandic politician and former Premier of Alsland
• Gustzy, musician
• Anna Harrington, musician
• Luise Höcherl, Weranian politician and leader of the SRPO
• Clara Hverman, Borish politician and leader of the New Left
• Eryk Jorśsun, Azmaran politician and former Thingspeaker of Azmara
• Just Tell Me, rock band
• Annie Kendall, journalist and activist
• Dani Leiberman, actor and activist
• Stiofán Mac Suibhne, Caldish politician and incumbent Taoiseach of Caldia
• Cate Marshal, journalist
• Irena Mesić, Slirnian politician and incumbent Premier of Slirnia
• Louis Matthew Montgomery, composer and playwright
• Ottila Möller, Alslandic politician and incumbent Premier of Alsland
• Periodic Ways, rock band
• Brooke Richards, television producer and screenwriter, creator of Faculty
• Martina Scott, Alslandic politician and former Premier and President of Alsland
• Gopal Singh, journalist
• Suspa, musician
• Mathéo Turzyna, Gaullican politician and incumbent Premier of Gaullica
• Salenna Tyson, actress
• Jean Vallette, Gaullican politician and former President of Gaullica
• Rupert van Bleiswijk, Hennish politician and incumbent Premier of Hennehouwe
• YBRV, musician
• Vivi, musician
• Bonne Zijlstra, Alslandic politician and former President of the Euclean Community

Sotirian Democratic Union

• Amy Alehome, journalist
• Edward Bates, journalist
• Isilda Cerqueira, Paretian politician and incumbent Premier of Paretia
• Hugo-Noël Devereaux, Gaullican politician and former President of Gaullica
• Augustin De Troumpe, Gaullican politician and former Cabinet minister
• Lilliana Elliott, Alslandic politician and former Premier of Premier of Alsland
• Rob Little, journalist
• Pádraig Mac Piarais, Caldish politician and leader of the Liberty Party
• Bartholomäus Stobrawa, Weranian politician and incumbent Minister-President of Cislania
• Alan Rickman, journalist
• Vittoria Vasari, Etrurian politician and incumbent Vice President of Etruria
• Albert Lucas Winson, composer and playright
• Dietrich Wittmann, Weranian politician and former Chancellor of Werania
• Daniella Wright, Alslandic politician and leader of the Democrats

Organisations and other political parties

Aldman Democratic Alliance

• Aldman People's Party of Werania

Estmerish Section of the Workers' International

• Workers' International

Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party

• National Agricultural Guild (Endorsed RIPP in the list vote and specific SDU constituency candidates)

Social Democratic and Co-operative Party

Trade unions

• Academic Assistance Association
• ACT – The Actors' Union
• Congress of Estmerish Trade Unions
• Electric and Industrial Workers' Union
• Firefighters Union
• General Workers' Union
• Independent and Unorganised Workers' Union
• Mineworkers' Federation
• Musicians' and Cultural Workers' Union
• National Teachers' Association
• Postal and Communication Union
• Public and Municipal Workers' Union
• Public Sector Association
• Service and Shop Workers' Union
• Shipping, Portworkers' and Transport Union
• Unite Together
• Writers' Guild

Other

• Social Democratic Party of Etruria

Sotirian Democratic Union

• National Agricultural Guild (Endorsed RIPP in the list vote and specific SDU constituency candidates)
• Veritas Institute, a right-wing non-profit political advocacy organisation and think tank

Opinion polling

Opinion polls were conducted throughout the period following the last election, by a number of polling organisations, most of which are members of the Estmerish Opinion Polling Organisation. Below are two graphs showing opinion poll result average trendline for the general election. The first includes all parties which won list seat in the last election, while the second focuses on minor parties.

Graphical summary of the average of polls conducted for the general election for parties from the current Parliament.

Graphical summary of the average of polls conducted for the general election for minor parties.