2021 Estmerish general election: Difference between revisions

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==Endorsements==
==Endorsements==
A number of organisations, individuals and newspapers have made endorsements on behalf of parties and individual candidates in the election. Most notably, a significant number of {{wp|head of government|heads of governments}} of [[Euclean Community]] members nations associated with the [[Pink Wave]] made unprecedented interventions in the election to support their preferred candidate for Prime Minister, [[Zoe Halivar]], and her party. This has been described as part of a 'federalisation' of Euclean politics.
A number of organisations, individuals and newspapers have made endorsements on behalf of parties and individual candidates in the election.  
 
Notably, a significant number of {{wp|head of government|heads of governments}} of [[Euclean Community]] members nations associated with the [[Pink Wave]] made unprecedented interventions in the election to support their preferred candidate for Prime Minister, [[Zoe Halivar]], and her party. This has been described as part of a 'federalisation' of Euclean politics<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38598044#p38598044"The Federalisation of Euclean Politics"]. ''[[The Continental]]''. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 28 April 2021.</ref>.


===Newspapers and magazines===
===Newspapers and magazines===
Line 525: Line 527:
====Social Democratic and Co-operative Party====
====Social Democratic and Co-operative Party====
{{colbegin|colwidth=20em}}
{{colbegin|colwidth=20em}}
* [[Sofija Anasdohter]], Azmaran politician and incumbent [[Government of Azmara|Thingspeaker of Azmara]]<ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38595971#p38595971"@AZThingspeaker"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.</ref><ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics">[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38598044#p38598044"The Federalisation of Euclean Politics"]. ''[[The Continental]]''. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 28 April 2021.</ref>
* [[Sofija Anasdohter]], Azmaran politician and incumbent [[Government of Azmara|Thingspeaker of Azmara]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/><ref>[https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=38595971#p38595971"@AZThingspeaker"]. ''{{wp|Twitter|Chirper}}''. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.</ref>
* [[Alexandra Aurelia]], Amathian politician and leader of the [[League of Equalists and Democrats (Amathia)|League of Equalists and Democrats]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* [[Alexandra Aurelia]], Amathian politician and leader of the [[League of Equalists and Democrats (Amathia)|League of Equalists and Democrats]]<ref name="Federalisation of Euclean Politics"/>
* {{wp|Mother Mother|Baba Baba}}, indie rock band
* {{wp|Mother Mother|Baba Baba}}, indie rock band

Revision as of 16:49, 30 April 2021

2021 Estmerish general election
← 2018 27 May 2021

All 600 seats in the Chamber of Commons
301 seats needed for a majority
  Official portrait of Mr David Davis crop 2.jpg Official portrait of Lisa Nandy crop 2.jpg Kirsty Williams AM (28092338171) (cropped).jpg
Leader Reginald Wilton-Smyth Zoe Halivar Esther Bennett
Party SDU SDCP Reform
Leader since 23 April 2018 22 May 2016 11 October 2014
Leader's seat Newchurch and Harrendole Harbrough Hillside Tolbury Outer
Last election 216 187 101
Current seats 215 184 99
Seats needed Increase86 Increase117 Increase202

  Daniel Hannan by Gage Skidmore.jpg Molly Scott Cato, 2016 (cropped).jpg Official portrait of Rt Hon Sir George Howarth MP crop 2.jpg
Leader George Avery Sara Hall-Brookes
(Lead Candidate)
Aelfwin Stringer
Party Estmere First Greens Party of the Swathish
Leader since 11 August 2018 7 April 2015 15 August 2009
Leader's seat Bouley North East Tendersea Holdenshire Wilds
Last election 35 29 15
Current seats 29 29 15
Seats needed Increase272 Increase272 Increase286

Incumbent Prime Minister

Reginald Wilton-Smyth
SDU



The 2021 Estmerish general election will be held on 27 May 2021. It is a snap election, called by Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth. All 600 Members of Parliament in the Chamber of Commons will be elected.

Following 2018, the next election was not scheduled until 2022. Reginald Wilton-Smyth made the call for a snap election on 14 April 2021, and Parliament voted in favour on 15 April. Campaigning will begin unofficially with the start of purdah on 18 April, but the campaign will officially begin with the dissolution of Parliament on 25 April. The ruling Sotirian Democratic Union led by Wilton-Smyth, their coalition partners the Reform Party led by Esther Bennett and the Social Democratic and Co-operative Party under Zoe Halivar are considered the main parties running in the election.

Minor national parties running in the election include Estmere First led by George Avery, the Greens led by Sara Hall-Brookes and Nathan Coutanche, and ESWI led by Ted Barnes, while relevant regionalist parties include the Party of the Swathish led by Aelfwin Stringer and the Aldman Democratic Alliance led by Annika Schröder. A number of new parties are also contesting the election, such as Vox Estmere, future.es and the Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party.

Polling day is 27 May, and full results are likely to be announced 28 May after list votes have been taken into account.

Background

Gambled pensions scandal

Mortimer's leadership challenge

Electoral system

Elections to the Chamber of Commons use the Additional Member System, or AMS for short. AMS is a mixed system that is semi-proportional. Voters have two votes. One vote for a local constituency, and one vote for their preferred party in a nation-wide party list. List seats are allocated through the Boeri method, with the winners of the constituency seats taken into account.

To be eligible for list seats, parties must pass an electoral threshold of 2.5% of the vote.

There are 600 total elected members of the Chamber. Of these, 400 members are elected through first-past-the-post constituency seats, with the remaining 200 members elected through party list.

301 seats are required for a majority. The party that recieves the most votes usually forms the government, but due to the proportional nature of the system it is unlikely for a single party to recieve a majority on its own. As such, coalition governments and minority government are common, and it is possible for the largest party to be excluded from government.

The 2021 election will use the constituency boundaries first drawn for the 2012 general election. This will be the fourth general election to use these constituency boundaries. The constituencies are overdue for a boundary review, with new boundaries legally-required before 2022, and so it is likely this will be the last general election to use these constituency boundaries.

Voting eligibility

In order to vote in the election, voters had to meet the criteria to be considered eligible, and register to vote before midnight 13 May, two weeks prior to polling day. Eligible voters had to be;

  • aged 18 or older on polling day
  • an Estmerish or Euclean Community citizen
  • permanently resident in Estmere, or owning property in Estmere
  • not excluded due to legal reasons, such as;

Voters could be registered to multiple constituencies through multiple residences, but can only vote in one constituency. Overseas voters vote as if living at their last Estmerish address.

Timetable

Parties

At the end of the 2018 parliament, eight political parties had representation in the Chamber of Commons. The three largest parties in Estmere are the Sotirian Democratic Union, the Social Democratic and Co-operative Party and the Reform Party, together comprising just under 85% of the seats in the Chamber, and it is widely expected that these parties will come out on top after the election.

Other relevant national parties include Estmere First, the Greens and the Estmerish Section of the Workers' International, all of which currently have Parliamentary representation. A number of smaller, newer parties are also contesting a national election for the first time, including Vox Estmere, future.es and the Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party. Two regionalist parties, the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, are contesting a select number of constituency seats based on the distribution of Swathish and Aldman speakers respectively.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2018 general election result Seats at dissolution
Votes (%) Seats
Constituency Party list
Sotirian Democratic Union Conservatism
Sotirian democracy
Economic liberalism
Reginald Wilton-Smyth 36.8 35.6
216 / 600
215 / 600
Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Social democracy
Co-operatism
Democratic socialism
Pro-Eucleanism
Zoe Halivar 33.7 30.9
187 / 600
184 / 600
Reform Party Social liberalism
Progressivism
Pro-Eucleanism
Esther Bennett 15.8 16.7
101 / 600
99 / 600
Estmere First Right-wing populism
Estmerish nationalism
Euclosceptism
George Avery 4.3 5.8
35 / 600
29 / 600
Greens Green politics
Progressivism
Pro-Eucleanism
Sara Hall-Brookes
Nathan Coutanche
3.9 4.9
29 / 600
29 / 600
Party of the Swathish Swathish nationalism
Social democracy
Civic nationalism
Regionalism
Aelfwin Stringer 2.5 2.6
15 / 600
15 / 600
Estmerish Section of the Workers' International Council socialism
Anti-capitalism
Soft-Euclosceptism
Ted Barnes 2.0 2.5
15 / 600
14 / 600
Aldman Democratic Alliance Aldman regionalism
Social liberalism
Civic nationalism
Annika Schröder 0.4 0.4
2 / 600
2 / 600
Vox Estmere Euclofederalism
Social liberalism
Marcello Schipani
Kat Rodham
Did not exist
0 / 600
future.es Future politics
E-democracy
Nate Foreman Did not exist
0 / 600
Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party Agrarianism
Pensioners' interests
Dorris Tippery Did not exist
0 / 600

Campaign

Television debates

A number of televeision debates were held. For all debates held on any channel or service run by the Estmerish Broadcasting Service, broadcasting regulations dictated that party leaders were invited only if they were standing across the country and already maintained seats in Parliament or had consistently, for at least three contintuous months, polled higher than the electoral threshold of 2.5% in opinion poll averages. This meant that the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, despite holding seats in Parliament, were not eligible to take part.

2021 Estmerish general election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s) Subject  P  Present   S  Surrogate   NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee  INV Invited 
SDU SDCP Reform Estmere First Greens ESWI Ref.
27 April EBS News Emily Ford Leaders' debate P
Wilton-Smyth
P
Halivar
P
Bennett
P
Avery
P
Hall-Brookes
P
Barnes
[1]

Endorsements

A number of organisations, individuals and newspapers have made endorsements on behalf of parties and individual candidates in the election.

Notably, a significant number of heads of governments of Euclean Community members nations associated with the Pink Wave made unprecedented interventions in the election to support their preferred candidate for Prime Minister, Zoe Halivar, and her party. This has been described as part of a 'federalisation' of Euclean politics[2].

Newspapers and magazines

Newspaper Endorsement Notes
The Chartist Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
The Continental None Advised readers to "vote for pro-Euclean candidates [and] parties".
Cultural Review Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Weekly culture and arts magazine
Daily Times Sotirian Democratic Union
The Damesbridge Herald Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
The Dunwich Echo Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
Economic Review Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Advised readers "vote for the anti-SDU candidate most likely to win in your constituency". Supported Zoe Halivar to become PM.
The Express Sotirian Democratic Union
Flurland News Sotirian Democratic Union
The Hamptonshire Post Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Estmerish-language Alslandic newspaper.
May Day Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Left-wing political magazine
Mode Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Weekly fashion magazine
The Morwall Chronicle Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
The Nation Sotirian Democratic Union Right-wing political magazine
The Norland Post Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Estmerish-language Borish newspaper.
Red Sunday Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
The Standard None Called for readers to vote for "moderate SDU candidates" to "push Mr Wilton-Smyth" to resign.
Reverb Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Bi-monthly rock music magazine
St Richards Times Sotirian Democratic Union
The Swathish National Party of the Swathish
Teen Mode Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Weekly fashion magazine aimed at young people
Today Sotirian Democratic Union Estmerish-language version of Alslandic newspaper Hjoed.
Wealdland Post Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
Westhaven Journal None Estmerish-language Borish newspaper.
Witterite News Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
Wow! Social Democratic and Co-operative Party Bi-monthly pop music magazine

Individuals

Aldman Democratic Alliance

Estmere First

Estmerish Section of the Workers' International

future.es

Greens

Party of the Swathish

Reform Party

Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party

Social Democratic and Co-operative Party

Sotirian Democratic Union

Vox Estmere

Organisations and other political parties

Aldman Democratic Alliance

Estmere First

Estmerish Section of the Workers' International

future.es

Greens

Party of the Swathish

Reform Party

Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party

Social Democratic and Co-operative Party

Trade unions
Other

Sotirian Democratic Union

Vox Estmere

Opinion polling

Opinion polls were conducted throughout the period following the last election, by a number of polling organisations, most of which are members of the Estmerish Opinion Polling Organisation. Below are two graphs showing opinion poll result average trendline for the general election. The first includes all parties which won list seat in the last election, while the second focuses on minor parties.

Graphical summary of the average of polls conducted for the general election for parties from the current Parliament.
Graphical summary of the average of polls conducted for the general election for minor parties.

Target seats

References

  1. "First debate held on EBS; polls show "no clear winner" in a "messy debate"". EBS News. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 28 April 2021.
  2. 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.10 2.11 2.12 "The Federalisation of Euclean Politics". The Continental. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 28 April 2021.
  3. "@AZThingspeaker". Chirper. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
  4. "@AndrewBohn". Chirper. 29 April 2021. Retrieved 29 April 2021.
  5. "@PresidentofGaullica". Chirper. 25 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
  6. "@EsmeraldaF". Chirper. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 29 April 2021.
  7. "@sms". Chirper. 25 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
  8. "@rvanbleiswijk". Chirper. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.
  9. "@CerqueiraIsilda". Chirper. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 29 April 2021.
  10. "@VittoriaVasari". Chirper. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
  11. "@SDEtruria". Chirper. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.