2021 Estmerish general election: Difference between revisions
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==Background== | ==Background== | ||
The previous [[2018 Estmerish general election|2018 election]] saw the governing [[Sotirian Democratic Union]] gain seats, with newly-elected leader [[Reginald Wilton-Smyth]] seen to have breathed new life into the party. The party continued their coalition deal with the [[Reform Party]] under [[Esther Bennett]], but the opposition [[Social Democratic and Co-operative Party]] under [[Zoe Halivar]] also advanced in the election, emerging stronger than before. | |||
===Gambled pensions scandal=== | ===Gambled pensions scandal=== | ||
{{main|Estmerish missing pensions scandal}} | {{main|Estmerish missing pensions scandal}} | ||
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===Mortimer's leadership challenge=== | ===Mortimer's leadership challenge=== | ||
{{main|2021 Sotirian Democratic Union leadership election}} | {{main|2021 Sotirian Democratic Union leadership election}} | ||
On 9 March, [[Jon Mortimer]] resigned as [[Cabinet of Estmere|Secretary of State for Health and Social Affairs]] in opposition to Wilton-Smyth's handling of the pensions scandal. Supported by a number of SDU grandees, Mortimer lodged a formal leadership challenge with the SDU organising committee on 14 March, which led to a closed leadership election on 16 March between Mortimer and Wilton-Smyth. Wilton-Smyth narrowly won the contest, but a majority of SDU federal MPs voted for Mortimer, which was seen as Wilton-Smyth having lost their confidence. | |||
Having lost the support of his backbenchers, and with his coalition partners seeking out a new coalition deal with the opposition, Wilton-Smyth called for a snap general election on 14 April, reportedly aiming to catch the opposition off-guard. Parliament voted in favour of a snap election on 15 April. | |||
==Electoral system== | ==Electoral system== | ||
Revision as of 22:15, 30 April 2021
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The 2021 Estmerish general election will be held on 27 May 2021. It is a snap election, called by Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth. All 600 Members of Parliament in the Chamber of Commons will be elected.
Following 2018, the next election was not scheduled until 2022. Reginald Wilton-Smyth made the call for a snap election on 14 April 2021, and Parliament voted in favour on 15 April. Campaigning unofficially began with the start of purdah on 18 April, but the campaign officially began with the dissolution of Parliament on 25 April. The ruling Sotirian Democratic Union led by Wilton-Smyth, their coalition partners the Reform Party led by Esther Bennett and the Social Democratic and Co-operative Party under Zoe Halivar are considered the main parties running in the election.
Minor national parties running in the election include Estmere First led by George Avery, the Greens led by Sara Hall-Brookes and Nathan Coutanche, and ESWI led by Ted Barnes, while relevant regionalist parties include the Party of the Swathish led by Aelfwin Stringer and the Aldman Democratic Alliance led by Annika Schröder. A number of new parties are also contesting the election, such as Vox Estmere, future.es and the Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party.
Polling day is 27 May, and full results are likely to be announced 28 May after list votes have been taken into account.
Background
The previous 2018 election saw the governing Sotirian Democratic Union gain seats, with newly-elected leader Reginald Wilton-Smyth seen to have breathed new life into the party. The party continued their coalition deal with the Reform Party under Esther Bennett, but the opposition Social Democratic and Co-operative Party under Zoe Halivar also advanced in the election, emerging stronger than before.
Gambled pensions scandal
Mortimer's leadership challenge
On 9 March, Jon Mortimer resigned as Secretary of State for Health and Social Affairs in opposition to Wilton-Smyth's handling of the pensions scandal. Supported by a number of SDU grandees, Mortimer lodged a formal leadership challenge with the SDU organising committee on 14 March, which led to a closed leadership election on 16 March between Mortimer and Wilton-Smyth. Wilton-Smyth narrowly won the contest, but a majority of SDU federal MPs voted for Mortimer, which was seen as Wilton-Smyth having lost their confidence.
Having lost the support of his backbenchers, and with his coalition partners seeking out a new coalition deal with the opposition, Wilton-Smyth called for a snap general election on 14 April, reportedly aiming to catch the opposition off-guard. Parliament voted in favour of a snap election on 15 April.
Electoral system
Elections to the Chamber of Commons use the Additional Member System, or AMS for short. AMS is a mixed system that is semi-proportional. Voters have two votes. One vote for a local constituency, and one vote for their preferred party in a nation-wide party list. List seats are allocated through the Boeri method, with the winners of the constituency seats taken into account.
To be eligible for list seats, parties must pass an electoral threshold of 2.5% of the vote.
There are 600 total elected members of the Chamber. Of these, 400 members are elected through first-past-the-post constituency seats, with the remaining 200 members elected through party list.
301 seats are required for a majority. The party that recieves the most votes usually forms the government, but due to the proportional nature of the system it is unlikely for a single party to recieve a majority on its own. As such, coalition governments and minority government are common, and it is possible for the largest party to be excluded from government.
The 2021 election will use the constituency boundaries first drawn for the 2012 general election. This will be the fourth general election to use these constituency boundaries. The constituencies are overdue for a boundary review, with new boundaries legally-required before 2022, and so it is likely this will be the last general election to use these constituency boundaries.
Voting eligibility
In order to vote in the election, voters had to meet the criteria to be considered eligible, and register to vote before midnight 13 May, two weeks prior to polling day. Eligible voters had to be;
- aged 18 or older on polling day
- an Estmerish or Euclean Community citizen
- permanently resident in Estmere, or owning property in Estmere
- not excluded due to legal reasons, such as;
- being convicted of a crime or being in contempt of court
- being an apolitical member of the Chamber of Peers
Voters could be registered to multiple constituencies through multiple residences, but can only vote in one constituency. Overseas voters vote as if living at their last Estmerish address.
Timetable
Key dates in the election are listed below:
| 14 April 2021 | Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth announced his intention to hold a snap election[1] |
| 15 April 2021 | Bill to dissolve Parliament for an early election passes the Chamber of Commons |
| 18 April 2021 | Purdah begins[1] |
| 25 April 2021 | Parliament is officially dissolved for the election by President Alice Roberts[2] |
| 25 April 2021 | Campaigning officialy begins[2] |
| 28 April 2021 | First televised debate[3] |
| 29 April 2021 | Deadline for party list nominations |
| 30 April 2021 | Deadline for constituency candidate nominations |
| 12 May 2021 | Last day to register to vote |
| 27 May 2021 | Polling day |
| 28 May 2021 | Preliminary election results announced[1] |
| 1 June 2021 | Official election results announced |
| 3 June 2021 | First meeting of the next Parliament |
Parties
At the end of the 2018 parliament, eight political parties had representation in the Chamber of Commons. The three largest parties in Estmere are the Sotirian Democratic Union, the Social Democratic and Co-operative Party and the Reform Party, together comprising just under 85% of the seats in the Chamber, and it is widely expected that these parties will come out on top after the election.
Other relevant national parties include Estmere First, the Greens and the Estmerish Section of the Workers' International, all of which currently have Parliamentary representation. A number of smaller, newer parties are also contesting a national election for the first time, including Vox Estmere, future.es and the Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party. Two regionalist parties, the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, are contesting a select number of constituency seats based on the distribution of Swathish and Aldman speakers respectively.
Campaign
Television debates
A number of televeision debates were held. For all debates held on any channel or service run by the Estmerish Broadcasting Service, broadcasting regulations dictated that party leaders were invited only if they were standing across the country and already maintained seats in Parliament or had consistently, for at least three contintuous months, polled higher than the electoral threshold of 2.5% in opinion poll averages. This meant that the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, despite holding seats in Parliament, were not eligible to take part.
| Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | Subject | P Present S Surrogate NI Not invited A Absent invitee INV Invited | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDU | SDCP | Reform | Estmere First | Greens | ESWI | Ref. | ||||||
| 27 April | EBS News | Emily Ford | Leaders' debate | P Wilton-Smyth |
P Halivar |
P Bennett |
P Avery |
P Hall-Brookes |
P Barnes |
[3] | ||
| 30 April | NITV | Paul Shanelly | "Big three" leaders' debate | P Wilton-Smyth |
P Halivar |
P Bennett |
NI | NI | NI | |||
Endorsements
A number of organisations, individuals and newspapers have made endorsements on behalf of parties and individual candidates in the election.
Notably, a significant number of heads of governments of Euclean Community members nations associated with the Pink Wave made unprecedented interventions in the election to support their preferred candidate for Prime Minister, Zoe Halivar, and her party. This has been described as part of a 'federalisation' of Euclean politics[4].
Newspapers and magazines
National newspapers
| Newspaper | Endorsement | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Chartist | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | ||
| Daily Times | Sotirian Democratic Union | ||
| Economic Review | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | Advised readers "vote for the anti-SDU candidate most likely to win in your constituency". Supported Zoe Halivar to become PM. | |
| The Express | Sotirian Democratic Union | ||
| Red Sunday | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | ||
| The Standard | None | Called for readers to vote for "moderate SDU candidates" to "push Mr Wilton-Smyth" to resign. | |
| Witterite News | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | ||
National political magazines
| Newspaper | Endorsement | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| May Day | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | Left-wing political magazine | |
| The Nation | Sotirian Democratic Union | Right-wing political magazine | |
Other national publications
| Newspaper | Endorsement | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cultural Review | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | Weekly culture and arts magazine | |
| Mode | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | Weekly fashion magazine | |
| Reverb | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | Bi-monthly rock music magazine | |
| Teen Mode | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | Weekly fashion magazine aimed at young people | |
| Wow! | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | Bi-monthly pop music magazine | |
Local newspapers
| Newspaper | Endorsement | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Damesbridge Herald | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | Weekly newspaper covering Damesbridgeshire | |
| The Dunwich Echo | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | Daily newspaper covering Dunwich and the wider Dunwich County | |
| Flurland News | Sotirian Democratic Union | Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Flurland | |
| The Morwall Chronicle | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Greater Morwall | |
| St Richards Times | Sotirian Democratic Union | Daily newspaper covering the city of St Richards | |
| The Swathish National | Party of the Swathish | Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Wealdland | |
| Wealdland Post | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Wealdland | |
Foreign newspapers
| Newspaper | Endorsement | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Continental | None | Advised readers to "vote for pro-Euclean candidates [and] parties". | |
| The Hamptonshire Post | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | Estmerish-language Alslandic newspaper. | |
| The Norland Post | Social Democratic and Co-operative Party | Estmerish-language Borish newspaper. | |
| Today | Sotirian Democratic Union | Estmerish-language version of Alslandic newspaper Hjoed. | |
| Westhaven Journal | None | Estmerish-language Borish newspaper. | |
Individuals
Aldman Democratic Alliance
- Haiko Posthuma, Weranian politician and leader of the Aldman People's Party
Estmere First
- Alfred Boulanger, Gaullican politician and leader of the National Front
Estmerish Section of the Workers' International
future.es
Greens
Party of the Swathish
Reform Party
- Coralie Barreau, Gaullican politician and co-leader of the PRCP
- Zacharie Blanchard, Gaullican politician and co-leader of the PRCP
- Penny Dorchester, journalist and economist (Also endorsed the SDCP)
- Abigail Kynd, journalist
- Matt LePonde, journalist
- Jimmy O'Reilly, Caldish politician and former Taoiseach of Caldia
Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party
Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
- Sofija Anasdohter, Azmaran politician and incumbent Thingspeaker of Azmara[4][5]
- Alexandra Aurelia, Amathian politician and leader of the League of Equalists and Democrats[4]
- Baba Baba, indie rock band
- Andrew Bohn, Nuvanian politician and incumbent Chief Minister of Nuvania[6]
- Len Dawson, journalist
- Monique Degar-Abdulrashid, Gaullican politician and incumbent President of Gaullica[4][7]
- Desert Apes, rock band
- Auro De Maio, Etrurian-born actor
- Penny Dorchester, journalist and economist (Also endorsed the Reform Party)
- Ian Durras, rugby player
- Esmeralda Falcão, Paretian politician and leader of the Social Democrats of Paretia[4][8]
- Jonathan Fraser, Alslandic politician and former Premier of Alsland
- Gustzy, musician
- Anna Harrington, musician
- Luise Höcherl, Weranian politician and leader of the SRPO[4]
- Clara Hverman, Borish politician and leader of the New Left[4]
- Eryk Jorśsun, Azmaran politician and former Thingspeaker of Azmara
- Just Tell Me, rock band
- Annie Kendall, journalist and activist
- Dani Leiberman, actor and activist
- Stiofán Mac Suibhne, Caldish politician and incumbent Taoiseach of Caldia[4][9]
- Cate Marshal, journalist
- Irena Mesić, Slirnian politician and incumbent Premier of Slirnia[10]
- Louis Matthew Montgomery, composer and playwright
- Ottila Möller, Alslandic politician and incumbent Premier of Alsland[4]
- Periodic Ways, rock band
- Brooke Richards, television producer and screenwriter, creator of Faculty
- Martina Scott, Alslandic politician and former Premier and President of Alsland
- Gopal Singh, journalist
- Suspa, musician
- Mathéo Turzyna, Gaullican politician and incumbent Premier of Gaullica[4]
- Salenna Tyson, actress
- Jean Vallette, Gaullican politician and former President of Gaullica[4]
- Rupert van Bleiswijk, Hennish politician and incumbent Premier of Hennehouwe[4][11]
- YBRV, musician
- Vivi, musician
- Bonne Zijlstra, Alslandic politician and former President of the Euclean Community[4]
Sotirian Democratic Union
- Amy Alehome, journalist
- Edward Bates, journalist
- Isilda Cerqueira, Paretian politician and incumbent Premier of Paretia[12]
- Hugo-Noël Devereaux, Gaullican politician and former President of Gaullica
- Augustin De Troumpe, Gaullican politician and former Cabinet minister
- Lilliana Elliott, Alslandic politician and former Premier of Premier of Alsland
- Rob Little, journalist
- Pádraig Mac Piarais, Caldish politician and leader of the Liberty Party
- Bartholomäus Stobrawa, Weranian politician and incumbent Minister-President of Cislania
- Alan Rickman, journalist
- Vittoria Vasari, Etrurian politician and incumbent Vice President of Etruria[13]
- Albert Lucas Winson, composer and playright
- Dietrich Wittmann, Weranian politician and former Chancellor of Werania
- Daniella Wright, Alslandic politician and leader of the Democrats
Vox Estmere
Organisations and other political parties
Aldman Democratic Alliance
Estmere First
Estmerish Section of the Workers' International
future.es
Greens
Party of the Swathish
Reform Party
Rural Interest and Pensioners' Party
- National Agricultural Guild (Endorsed RIPP in the list vote and specific SDU constituency candidates)
Social Democratic and Co-operative Party
- Trade unions
- Academic Assistance Association
- ACT – The Actors' Union
- Congress of Estmerish Trade Unions
- Electric and Industrial Workers' Union
- Firefighters Union
- General Workers' Union
- Independent and Unorganised Workers' Union
- Mineworkers' Federation
- Musicians' and Cultural Workers' Union
- National Teachers' Association
- Postal and Communication Union
- Public and Municipal Workers' Union
- Public Sector Association
- Service and Shop Workers' Union
- Shipping, Portworkers' and Transport Union
- Unite Together
- Writers' Guild
- Other
Sotirian Democratic Union
- National Agricultural Guild (Endorsed RIPP in the list vote and specific SDU constituency candidates)
- Veritas Institute, a right-wing non-profit political advocacy organisation and think tank
Vox Estmere
Opinion polling
Opinion polls were conducted throughout the period following the last election, by a number of polling organisations, most of which are members of the Estmerish Opinion Polling Organisation. Below are two graphs showing opinion poll result average trendline for the general election. The first includes all parties which won list seat in the last election, while the second focuses on minor parties.
Target seats
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 "Reginald Wilton-Smyth calls snap election in order to "provide clarity to the nation"". EBS News. 14 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 "Parliament dissolved, campaigning starts in earnest". EBS News. 25 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 "First debate held on EBS; polls show "no clear winner" in a "messy debate"". EBS News. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 28 April 2021.
- ↑ 4.00 4.01 4.02 4.03 4.04 4.05 4.06 4.07 4.08 4.09 4.10 4.11 4.12 "The Federalisation of Euclean Politics". The Continental. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 28 April 2021.
- ↑ "@AZThingspeaker". Chirper. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
- ↑ "@AndrewBohn". Chirper. 29 April 2021. Retrieved 29 April 2021.
- ↑ "@PresidentofGaullica". Chirper. 25 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
- ↑ "@EsmeraldaF". Chirper. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 29 April 2021.
- ↑ "@sms". Chirper. 25 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
- ↑ "The road ahead and an open door". Drazovice Diplomatique. 30 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.
- ↑ "@rvanbleiswijk". Chirper. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2021.
- ↑ "@CerqueiraIsilda". Chirper. 28 April 2021. Retrieved 29 April 2021.
- ↑ "@VittoriaVasari". Chirper. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
- ↑ "@SDEtruria". Chirper. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.