Gylian federal election, 1985: Difference between revisions
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| map_image = Gylias-elections-federal-1985-map.png | | map_image = Gylias-elections-federal-1985-map.png | ||
| map_caption = Plurality of [[Gylian Chamber of Deputies|deputies]] by [[Regions of Gylias|region]]*<br>{{colorbox|{{G-RR/meta/color}}|border=darkgray}} {{G-RR/meta/shortname}} {{colorbox| | | map_caption = Plurality of [[Gylian Chamber of Deputies|deputies]] by [[Regions of Gylias|region]]*<br>{{colorbox|{{G-RR/meta/color}}|border=darkgray}} {{G-RR/meta/shortname}} {{colorbox|#ED1B34|border=darkgray}} {{G-PA/meta/shortname}} {{colorbox|{{G-LU/meta/color}}|border=darkgray}} {{G-LU/meta/shortname}} {{colorbox|{{G-NB/meta/color}}|border=darkgray}} {{G-NB/meta/shortname}} {{colorbox|{{Independent politician/meta/color}}|border=darkgray}} {{G-NI/meta/shortname}} {{colorbox|white|border=darkgray}} Tie<br><small>* ([[Salxar Region|SL]], [[Makarces Region|MK]], [[Gacar Region|GC]], and [[Gerşyr Region|GE]] counted together as two ''circonscriptions'')</small> | ||
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|rowspan="5"|<center>{{G-PA}}<br>(PA)</center> | |rowspan="5"|<center>{{G-PA}}<br>(PA)</center> | ||
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After high expectations and anticipation, the final result was shocking and disappointing: the RR's loss of support was less than expected and it still finished third overall, and the FROS achieved its best performance, turning 1%–2% of first preference votes into 20 deputies and 10 senators. | After high expectations and anticipation, the final result was shocking and disappointing: the RR's loss of support was less than expected and it still finished third overall, and the FROS achieved its best performance, turning 1%–2% of first preference votes into 20 deputies and 10 senators. | ||
The NB won a solid plurality, registering the biggest gains in support of any electoral bloc, and finished first in a federal election for the first time since the [[Liberation War (Gylias)|Liberation War]]. Reflecting the electorate's mood of dissatisfaction, the {{G-NI}} made even bigger gains in seats, increasing their margin over | The NB won a solid plurality, registering the biggest gains in support of any electoral bloc, and finished first in a federal election for the first time since the [[Liberation War (Gylias)|Liberation War]]. Reflecting the electorate's mood of dissatisfaction, the {{G-NI}} made even bigger gains in seats, increasing their margin over the second-placed bloc in the [[Gylian Chamber of Deputies|Chamber of Deputies]] from 3 seats to 36. | ||
The PA's mixed fortunes reflected the damage to its reputation sustained in government. Its first preference vote shrank by 2% to 3%, and it finished second overall, gaining 5 deputies but losing 5 senators. The LU and CG rebounded from the nadir of [[Gylian federal election, 1976|1976]]–[[Gylian federal election, 1980|1980]], although their swings were 1% or less, and their gains in the Chamber of Deputies came more from its increased size. | The PA's mixed fortunes reflected the damage to its reputation sustained in government. Its first preference vote shrank by 2% to 3%, and it finished second overall, gaining 5 deputies but losing 5 senators. The LU and CG rebounded from the nadir of [[Gylian federal election, 1976|1976]]–[[Gylian federal election, 1980|1980]], although their swings were 1% or less, and their gains in the Chamber of Deputies came more from its increased size. | ||
Latest revision as of 08:15, 20 December 2024
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All 520 seats in the Chamber of Deputies All 400 seats in the Senate 261 Chamber of Deputies seats and 201 Senate seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Federal elections were held in Gylias on 22 January 1985, to elect the 520 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 400 members of the Senate.
Considered to mark the nadir of the wretched decade, the election produced a hung parliament, and the expected defeat for the Revolutionary Rally failed to materialise. Severe opposition disunity hampered the formation of a new government, allowing Aén Ďanez to remain in office as a caretaker. The Ossorian war crisis of 1986 finally mobilised the opposition, which formed the Filomena Pinheiro government.
Electoral system
Both chambers of the Gylian Parliament were elected through single transferable vote, using the Droop quota.
The Chamber of Deputies was elected using 5-member circonscriptions, drawn by Elections Gylias based on regional populations.
The Senate was elected by regions, each electing 20 senators.
Parties were not allowed to nominate more than one candidate per seat. Candidates were not allowed to run for both chambers simultaneously.
Parties
Background
The 1980s saw Gylias in the throes of the wretched decade. The Aén Ďanez government was torn by the deep-seated hostilities between the Revolutionary Rally and Revolutionary Rally, culminating in the PA being expelled from the coalition in 1983. The government was reduced to a coalition of just the RR and Independent Regional Alliance for Minorities, the latter of whom were marginalised by the RR.
The multiple crises that befell Gylias accumulated: by the time the election was called, the economy had been mired in recession since 1982, with unemployment reaching a peak, and a deteriorating balance of payments destabilising the þaler in the Common Monetary System. Although Aén Ďanez's confrontational style and authoritarian socialist program were failures, they still caused considerable disruption and contributed to the malaise of the time.
The opposition was hampered by disunity, missing a chance to topple Aén's government after the PA's expulsion in 1983 until the next statutory election in 1985. Although being pushed into opposition for the first time stemmed the damage to the PA's credibility, it still had difficulties adjusting to its new role. The public grew disgusted by the opposition's inability to remove Aén's weak minority government, and turned to formations that channeled the mood of revolt, including right-wing populist "molehill parties", the far-right Front for Renewal of Order and Society, and the synthesis anarchist People Power-Citizens' Movement.
Campaign
Due to their embattled minority status heading into the election, the RR was expected to lose. It had declined in opinion polls since their fluke re-election in 1980, and it was starting to lose staunch supporters as a result of the wretched decade. Analysts saw it as a foregone conclusion that the opposition would win — what kind of government would emerge became the central question.
The National Bloc benefited most from public disgust with the wretched decade. Lea Kersed's hard work as leader paid off: the NB finished ahead of the other electoral blocs in municipal elections since 1978, and voters increasingly blamed the other blocs for the failure to achieve a grand coalition. However, all was not well within the NB: a rift developed between the Hannaist Civic National Party, National Party of the Republic, and Popular Democratic Union and the increasingly right-leaning Free Economy Party and Independent Freedom Party, which moved more towards neoliberalism.
Being forced into opposition theoretically ended the PA's "coalitionist"–"oppositionist" struggle with victory for the latter. However, the damage had been done by 7 years in the Aén Ďanez government, and the PA faced an uphill climb to repair its credibility in such a short time. Unable to agree on a foresitter, the factions forced the PA to once again contest the election under collective leadership. Although it still struggled with finding figures to match the old faces of the Golden Revolution, a newer generation of politicians was starting to make its presence felt, highlighted by Governors Édith Champion (Nauras), Claire Côté (Herlan), and Ingrid Rossignol (Envadra).
The Liberal Union was increasingly host to a heated internal debate whether to attempt to realign itself with the broader National Bloc–Centre Group grouping. Mainly advocated by those bitter at the PA breaking the old alliance by entering the Aén Ďanez government, it was opposed by members who feared it would betray the LU's Donatellist roots and "rightful place" on the centre-left.
Sensing the RR's weakness, the FROS built on its surface-moderation strategy and explicitly pursued disillusioned RR voters with authoritarian inclinations.
Among Non-inscrits, the sustained recession was seized on by the Party for Growth and Prosperity Party, the first right-wing parties to explicitly attack the Gylian consensus and advocate capitalism. During the campaign, they developed a closeness with the "molehill parties" the Automobile Freedom Party and Party for Freedom of Food, prompting observers to speculate that a radical right group was emerging outside the FROS.
Results
In accordance with electoral law, the results were embargoed until the full counting and transfers were completed, and were released all at once on 27 January.
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| Parties and blocs | Chamber of Deputies | Senate | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPV | % | ± | Seats | ± | FPV | % | ± | Seats | ± | ||
| National Bloc | 2.119.758 | 24,0% |  3,8%
|
100 | 32
|
1.888.122 | 21,4% | 5,4%
|
70 | 6
| |
| Progressive Alliance | 1.666.497 | 18,9% |  1,9%
|
85 | 5
|
1.676.370 | 19,0% | 3,3%
|
60 | 5
| |
| Non-inscrits and independents | 1.462.874 | 16,6% | 1,3%
|
136 | 48
|
2.126.343 | 24,1% | 2,9%
|
134 | 
| |
| Revolutionary Rally | 1.349.869 | 15,3% | 5,8%
|
70 | 15
|
855.831 | 9,7% | 2,1%
|
32 | 8
| |
| Liberal Union | 1.067.475 | 12,1% | 1,5%
|
55 | 22
|
1.067.583 | 12,1% | 0,1%
|
50 | 1
| |
| Centre Group | 1.049.831 | 11,9% | 0,8%
|
54 | 21
|
1.014.645 | 11,5% | 1,5%
|
44 | 4
| |
| Front for Renewal of Order and Society | 105.806 | 1,2% | 0,2%
|
20 | 12
|
194.105 | 2,2% | 1,2%
|
10 | 4
| |
| Total | 8.822.110 | 100% | — | 520 | — | 8.823.000 | 100% | — | 400 | — | |
| Registered voters and turnout | 9.440.329 | 94,5% | |||||||||
Analysis
After high expectations and anticipation, the final result was shocking and disappointing: the RR's loss of support was less than expected and it still finished third overall, and the FROS achieved its best performance, turning 1%–2% of first preference votes into 20 deputies and 10 senators.
The NB won a solid plurality, registering the biggest gains in support of any electoral bloc, and finished first in a federal election for the first time since the Liberation War. Reflecting the electorate's mood of dissatisfaction, the Non-inscrits made even bigger gains in seats, increasing their margin over the second-placed bloc in the Chamber of Deputies from 3 seats to 36.
The PA's mixed fortunes reflected the damage to its reputation sustained in government. Its first preference vote shrank by 2% to 3%, and it finished second overall, gaining 5 deputies but losing 5 senators. The LU and CG rebounded from the nadir of 1976–1980, although their swings were 1% or less, and their gains in the Chamber of Deputies came more from its increased size.
Regionally, the NB definitively broke out of Nerveiík-Iárus-Daláyk, winning pluralities throughout southern Gylias, and racking up strong performances throughout the mainland, cutting into left-wing strength. The LU regained pluralities in their strongholds Arxaþ, Alţira, and Elena, a significant psychological boost for adherents hopeful of a revival. The PA secured pluralities in Mişeyáke and Envadra, while non-inscrits held onto Sváen and Nezyál.
The closeness of the election was seen in the extremely close margins — most regions saw pluralities won by a one-seat difference — and higher number of tied results, such as in the northern circonscriptions, Tandar, and Herlan. The opposition failed to dislodge the RR's one-seat pluralities in Kausania and Arsad, a source of great frustration in the final results.
Aftermath
The new Parliament was sworn in on 1 February 1985. For the second time since 1976, there was no obvious government that could be formed. The resigning Aén Ďanez government remained as caretaker until negotiations concluded.
There was a noticeable swing to the centre-right: the NB, CG, and Union for a New Republic, with the addition of the market anarchist parties, were within distance of a majority. The FEP and IFP advocated a coalition or pact with the AFP–PFF–PFG–PP group, which Lea reprimanded; she stuck to her strategy of forming a grand coalition and publicly sought support from leftist parties such as the Green Party and New People's Party to make her stance clear.
Exhausted by the factional conflict and its damaged reputation from the office, the PA was now more amenable to forming a grand coalition. However, the significant stumbling block remained division of cabinet posts. Seeking to rule out an obstacle to an agreement, Lea announced she would not be a candidate for Prime Minister, concluding that for the left, serving under a conservative Prime Minister would be a bridge too far.
Having previously failed to remove Aén from office in 1980, the opposition now moved more cautiously, knowing that parliamentary procedure required a positive majority for a successor for a motion of no confidence to succeed. However, opposition disunity continued to drag out the negotiations into 1986, despite interventions by Presidents Len Resis and Sáe Nyran, which further outraged the public.
Throughout this time, Aén remained in office as a caretaker, and on some occasions attempted to abuse this mandate to govern as if she had been re-elected. Finally, the Ossorian war crisis of 1986 galvanised the opposition, and Aén was deposed on 30 May 1986. A national unity cabinet was formed under independent deputy Filomena Pinheiro, encompassing all blocs and parties apart from the RR, FROS, and "molehill parties".
