2021 Estmerish general election

2021 Estmerish general election

28 May 2021
All 600 seats in the Chamber of Commons 301 seats needed for a majority
Registered	42,308,455
Turnout	30,822,889 (72.85%; 2.4 pp)
First party Second party Third party   Leader Zoe Halivar Reginald Wilton-Smyth Esther Bennett Party PSD SDU Reform Leader since 22 May 2016 23 April 2018 11 October 2014 Leader's seat Harbrough Hillside Newchurch and Harrendole Tolbury Outer (lost) Last election 187 216 101 Seats before 184 215 99 Seats won 253 199 44 Seat change 66 17 57 Constituency vote 13,805,572 10,529,099 2,780,225 % and swing 44.79% 11.09% 34.16% 2.64% 9.02% 9.61% Party vote 12,729,101 10,032,054 2,185,905 % and swing 41.30% 10.40% 32.55% 3.05% 7.09% 6.78%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Sara Hall-Brookes (Lead Candidate) Ted Barnes Dorris Tippery Party Greens Left Centre Leader since 7 April 2015 17 January 2019 3 January 2021 Leader's seat Tendersea Batterly and Nunling List Last election 29 15 0 Seats before 29 14 0 Seats won 40 21 14 Seat change 11 6 14 Constituency vote 1,417,853 610,293 332,887 % and swing 4.60% 0.70% 1.98% 0.02% 1.08% 1.08% Party vote 2,116,405 1,156,376 793,954 % and swing 6.87% 1.97% 3.75% 1.25% 2.58% 2.58%
Prime Minister before election Reginald Wilton-Smyth SDU Prime Minister after election Zoe Halivar PSD

The 2021 Estmerish general election was held on 28 May 2021. It was a snap election, called for by Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth on 14 April with the intention of providing clarity following the gambled pensions scandal. All 600 Members of Parliament in the Chamber of Commons were elected. Official results were released on 29 May.

Following 2018, the next election was not scheduled until 2022. Reginald Wilton-Smyth made the call for a snap election on 14 April, and Parliament voted in favour on 15 April. Campaigning unofficially began with the start of purdah on 18 April, but the campaign officially began with the dissolution of Parliament on 25 April. Pensions, social security and housing were considered major issues in the campaign, with foreign and social policy also taking prominence in response to LGBT-free zones in Etruria. Age and opinion of leaders were considered to impact voting intention in the campaign. The campaign was also notable for the prominent role that foreign leaders played in the campaign, with Pink Wave leaders endorsing and campaigning for Halivar and her party, possibly to capitalise on her momentum for their own electoral tests, in what has been described as the federalisation of EC politics.

The opposition Progressive Social Democrats emerged from the election as the largest party, and Zoe Halivar announced her intention to form a minority government with support from smaller progressive parties. The results were the best for the social democratic left since the 1973 election, and the worst for the Reform Party since its foundation in 1980, and saw leader Esther Bennett lose her constituency seat. The governing Sotirian Democratic Union fell back, but retained a sizable vote share and attempted to form a government. The Greens saw a rise in their vote share, challenging Reform for third-largest party. Three new parties, Vox Estmere, future.es and the Centre Party, won seats in Parliament for the first time.

Voter turnout in the election was 72.85%, up 2.4% since the last election, and the highest for a national election since 1999. The PSD was seen to have reversed long-term trends by supplanting Reform as the major centre-left party, doing so by broadening its appeal and winning voters in suburban areas with a focus on social liberalism and competence.

Background

The previous 2018 election saw the governing Sotirian Democratic Union gain seats, with newly-elected leader Reginald Wilton-Smyth seen to have breathed new life into the party. The party continued their coalition deal with the Reform Party under Esther Bennett, but the opposition Progressive Social Democrats under Zoe Halivar also advanced in the election, emerging stronger than before.

Gambled pensions scandal

Main article: Estmerish missing pensions scandal

News of the gambled pensions scandal broke on 8 February 2021, when Penny Dorchester of the Economic Review published an article which relayed information from an anynomous whistleblower from the Treasury, revealing that government records showed discrepencies between annual pensions contributions and the overall ringfenced pension pot, suggesting that a quarter of the fund was missing. Both the Review and Leader of the Opposition Zoe Halivar asked the Prime Minister where the money was, with Halivar raising the issue in Prime Minister's Questions, and the PSD leader called for a transparent public investigation. The Prime Minister initially dismissed the claims as "baseless yellow journalism".

On 24 February 2021 The Chartist reported that another whistleblower had contacted them, revealing that the pensions had been "gambled" in a risky stock market investment against the advice of the Treasury. The money had been invested with Frobisher-Green Management, which defaulted on its debts earlier in the month. At least €3.5 billion had been lost in the investment. Polls showed that the public did not believe that the claims were "baseless", as the PM had suggested. On 25 February, in response to the allegations, the government released a statement on the scandal, which was seen as underwhelming, urging the public not to panic and to trust in the process. Halivar once again called for an investigation and asserted that public trust was diminishing.

Mortimer's leadership challenge

Main article: 2021 Sotirian Democratic Union leadership election

On 9 March, Jon Mortimer resigned as Secretary of State for Health and Social Affairs in opposition to Wilton-Smyth's handling of the pensions scandal. Supported by a number of SDU grandees, Mortimer lodged a formal leadership challenge with the SDU organising committee on 14 March, which led to a closed leadership election beginning on 16 March between Mortimer and Wilton-Smyth. Wilton-Smyth narrowly won the contest on 29 March, but a majority of SDU federal MPs voted for Mortimer, which was seen as Wilton-Smyth having lost their confidence.

Though Wilton-Smyth won the contest, it was seen to have damaged his government. He was seen to have lost the support of his backbenchers, and his coalition partners were reportedly seeking out a new coalition deal with the opposition under Halivar. Cabinet unity had also been damaged during the contest. The government therefore announced late in the evening on 13 April that they would be making an announcement the day after, and it was then that Wilton-Smyth called for a snap general election on 14 April, reportedly aiming to catch the opposition off-guard. Parliament voted in favour of a snap election on 15 April.

Electoral system

Elections to the Chamber of Commons use the Additional Member System, or AMS for short. AMS is a mixed system that is semi-proportional. Voters have two votes. One vote for a local constituency, and one vote for their preferred party in a party list for each constituent entity. List seats are allocated through the Boeri method, with the winners of the constituency seats taken into account.

To be eligible for list seats, parties must pass an electoral threshold of 2.5% of the vote in any of the constituent entities.

There are 600 total elected members of the Chamber. Of these, 400 members are elected through first-past-the-post constituency seats, with the remaining 200 members elected through party list.

301 seats are required for a majority. The party that recieves the most votes usually forms the government, but due to the proportional nature of the system it is unlikely for a single party to recieve a majority on its own. As such, coalition governments and minority government are common, and it is possible for the largest party to be excluded from government.

The 2021 election will use the constituency boundaries first drawn for the 2012 general election. This will be the fourth general election to use these constituency boundaries. The constituencies are overdue for a boundary review, with new boundaries legally-required before 2022, and so it is likely this will be the last general election to use these constituency boundaries.

Voting eligibility

In order to vote in the election, voters had to meet the criteria to be considered eligible, and register to vote before midnight 13 May, two weeks prior to polling day. Eligible voters had to be;

• aged 18 or older on polling day
• an Estmerish or Euclean Community citizen
• permanently resident in Estmere, or owning property in Estmere
• not excluded due to legal reasons, such as;
  • being convicted of a crime or being in contempt of court
  • being an apolitical member of the Chamber of Peers

Voters could be registered to multiple constituencies through multiple residences, but can only vote in one constituency. Overseas voters vote as if living at their last Estmerish address.

Timetable

Key dates in the election are listed below:

14 April 2021	Prime Minister Reginald Wilton-Smyth announced his intention to hold a snap election
15 April 2021	Bill to dissolve Parliament for an early election passes the Chamber of Commons
18 April 2021	Purdah begins
25 April 2021	Parliament is officially dissolved for the election by President Alice Roberts
25 April 2021	Campaigning officialy begins
27 April 2021	First televised debate
29 April 2021	Deadline for party list nominations
30 April 2021	Deadline for constituency candidate nominations
13 May 2021	Last day to register to vote
28 May 2021	Polling day
28 May 2021	Preliminary election results announced
29 May 2021	Official election results announced
3 June 2021	First meeting of the next Parliament

Parties

Main article: List of political parties in Estmere

At the end of the 2018 parliament, eight political parties had representation in the Chamber of Commons. The three largest parties in Estmere are the Sotirian Democratic Union, the Progressive Social Democrats and the Reform Party, together comprising just under 85% of the seats in the Chamber, and it is widely expected that these parties will come out on top after the election.

Other relevant national parties include Estmere First, the Greens and the Left Party, all of which currently have Parliamentary representation. A number of smaller, newer parties are also contesting a national election for the first time, including Vox Estmere, future.es and the Centre Party. Two regionalist parties, the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, are contesting a select number of constituency seats based on the distribution of Swathish and Aldman speakers respectively.

Name		Ideology	Leader(s)	2018 general election result			Seats at dissolution
				Votes (%)		Seats
				Constituency	Party list
	Sotirian Democratic Union	Conservatism Sotirian democracy	Reginald Wilton-Smyth	36.8	35.6	216 / 600	215 / 600
	Progressive Social Democrats	Social democracy Progressivism	Zoe Halivar	33.7	30.9	187 / 600	184 / 600
	Reform Party	Liberalism Social liberalism	Esther Bennett	15.8	16.7	101 / 600	99 / 600
	Estmere First	Right-wing populism Estmerish nationalism	George Avery	4.3	5.8	35 / 600	29 / 600
	Greens	Green politics Progressivism	Sara Hall-Brookes Nathan Coutanche	3.9	4.9	29 / 600	29 / 600
	Party of the Swathish	Swathish nationalism Social democracy	Ạlfvynn Striġder	2.5	2.6	15 / 600	15 / 600
	Left Party	Left-wing populism Euclosceptism	Ted Barnes	2.0	2.5	15 / 600	14 / 600
	Aldman Democratic Alliance	Aldman regionalism Social liberalism	Annika Schröder	0.4	0.4	2 / 600	2 / 600
	Vox Estmere	Euclofederalism Social liberalism	Marcello Schipani Kat Rodham	–	–	Did not exist	0 / 600
	future.es	Future politics E-democracy	Nate Foreman	–	–	Did not exist	0 / 600
	Centre Party	Pensioners' interests Agrarianism	Dorris Tippery	–	–	Did not exist	0 / 600

Campaign

A PSD rally in Bouley in April. Rallies are common in Estmerish election campaigns.

The campaign officially began on 25 April, but some 'light' campaigning had started as soon as purdah began on 18 April.

Reform and Estmere First both launched their campaigns on 26 April, in Colton and St Richards respectively. The Reform Party focused the launch of their campaign on their "moderating influence" on the SDU-led coalition, and pointed to a number of government successes in departments headed by their ministers. Estmere First started their campaign with a pledge to reduce net immigration to 0%.

The first television debate between party leaders was held on 27 April, hosted by EBS News, and subject to EBS broadcasting regulations. Ạlfvynn Striġder of the Party of the Swathish criticised the regulations as "unfair" to regionalist parties. The debate was described as "messy", and polls showed that no party leader was considered to have won the debate by a majority of voters. Halivar was rated marginally ahead of the other candidates.

Most major parties launched their official campaigns in the last week of April. The PSD officially launched their campaign on 29 April, promising to resolve the pensions scandal and tackle the housing crisis, in order to bring "real change" to Estmere. The SDU, Greens and Left Party all launched their campaigns officially on 30 April. The SDU promised to continue the economic recovery and to mtaintain Estmere's presence abroad in support of liberal democracy. The Greens promised to tackle climate change, and the Left promised to end austerity.

Estmere First launched their manifesto on 15 May, with George Avery pledging to drop the Euclo, require companies to advertise jobs to Estmerish citizens first, enact a referendum on restoring the death penalty, prmote Estmerish pride in schools, stop foreign aid payments, end same-sex marriage, protect single-sex spaces and promote Estmere as a Sotirian country.

SDU manifesto cover.

PSD manifesto cover.

On 18 May, Reginald Wilton-Smyth released the SDU manifesto entitled Sensibility and Spine in Colton, revealing the party's platform. Headline policy committments included a freeze on VAT, a comprehensive reform of inheritance tax, the capping of yearly net immigration at 75,000, a promise to 'foster national pride' in the Estmerish curriculum, and an opposition the 'federalisation' of the Euclean Community. The manifesto also pledged to cap benefit payments, lift the tax bracket for poorer earners, protect Estmerish manufacturers, reform immigration law to allow for the deportation of immigrants who commit crimes, and opposition to Tsabaran refugee quotas. The party also promised to repay pensions lost in the pensions scandal.

Left Party leader Ted Barnes launched his party's campaign on the morning of 19 May, swiftly followed by Sara Hall-Brookes and Coutanche of the Greens in the afternoon. Barnes committed his party to dropping the Euclo, abolishing private healthcare providers, introducing a wealth tax, withdrawing from the Tsabaran conflict, abolishing tuition fees, banning conversion therapy and tackling poor working conditions in the gig economy. The party was criticised by Qadir Jabbar of TSWI for opposing involvement in the Tsabaran conflict, against a "functionalist and religious extremist state".

The Green manifesto promised to fund a transition to green energy by raising the top rate of income tax, to introduce tax breaks for carbon netural companies, to legalise marijuana, to introduce an animal rights charter, to work for an EC-wide green new deal and to support self-identification for transgender and non-binary people. Hall-Brookes confirmed that she was their candidate for PM, with Coutanche being deputy PM candidate.

Zoe Halivar launched the PSD's manifesto in Sheaford on 20 May, pledging to "change the country for the better". The PSD manifesto claimed to emphasise equality, justice and competence, with a number of headline policies, including widespread infrastructure investment, a resolution to the pensions scandal which restored public pensions, a house building campaign to tackle the housing crisis, a committment 'cradle to grave' education and healthcare, prison reform, a reversal of local government cuts, and a number of social reforms including non-binary gender recogntion, increased accessibility and linguistic pluralism, including motions to make Aldman and Estmerish Sign Language national languages.

In their manifesto, launched 21 May, the Reform Party pledged to institute a plastic bag tax to tackle littering, to protect the squeezed middle with no income tax rises, to legalise marijuana, fully devolve the curriculum to the states, open grammar schools up to more student from low-income backgrounds, and ensure disabled people have access to job interviews.

The third EBS News debate on 21 May focused on social policy, and saw leaders from six major national parties answer public-submitted questions related to gender recognition, conversion therapy, disability rights, responding to prejudice, and tackling inequality. The debate became notable when the first question related to the LGBT-free zones in Etruria, with Wilton-Smyth's response seen negatively.

Voters' opinion of party leaders was identified as an increasingly important component of the campaign, seemingly in contrast with prior elections. Polling undertaken by Peer Sootland identified that Halivar was associated with more positive terms, such as "honest" and "competent", than Wilton-Smyth, who was more likely to be identified as "incompetent" or "smug". It has been suggested that a reasoning for this is Wilton-Smyth's handling of the pensions scandal, which narrowed his appeal as he was no longer seen as economically competent. Notably, perceptions of the party leaders correlated with age, with younger voters more positive of Halivar and older voters more positive of Wilton-Smyth, suggesting that age might be playing an important part in predicting voting intention.

Television debates

A number of televeision debates were held. For all debates held on any channel or service run by the Estmerish Broadcasting Service, broadcasting regulations dictated that party leaders were invited only if they were standing across the country and already maintained seats in Parliament or had consistently, for at least three contintuous months, polled higher than the electoral threshold of 2.5% in opinion poll averages. This meant that the Party of the Swathish and the Aldman Democratic Alliance, despite holding seats in Parliament, were not eligible to take part.

2021 Estmerish general election debates

Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	Subject	P  Present   S  Surrogate   NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee  INV Invited
				SDU	PSD	Reform	Estmere First	Greens	Left	PS	Ref.
27 April	EBS News	Emily Ford	Leaders' debate	P Wilton-Smyth	P Halivar	P Bennett	P Avery	P Hall-Brookes	P Barnes	NI
30 April	NITV	Paul Shanelly	"Big three" leaders' debate	P Wilton-Smyth	P Halivar	P Bennett	NI	NI	NI	NI
3 May	NITV Weald	Richard Gunnarsson	Debate in the Swathish language	P Wilton-Smyth	P Halivar	P Bennett	A	S Haroldson	P Barnes	P Striġder
7 May	EBS News	Emily Ford	Foreign policy	P Wilton-Smyth	P Halivar	P Bennett	P Avery	P Hall-Brookes	P Barnes	NI
11 May	NITV d'Estme	Julia Montfort	Debate in the Flurian language	P Wilton-Smyth	P Halivar	P Bennett	P Avery	P Coutanche	P Barnes	NI
13 May	NITV	Paul Shanelly	Smaller party leaders' debate	NI	NI	NI	P Avery	P Hall-Brookes	P Barnes	P Striġder
17 May	EBS/University of Morwall	Emily Ford	Young voters	P Wilton-Smyth	P Halivar	P Bennett	S Thomson	P Hall-Brookes	P Barnes	NI
21 May	EBS News	Emily Ford	Social policy	P Wilton-Smyth	P Halivar	P Bennett	P Avery	P Hall-Brookes	P Barnes	NI
25 May	NITV	Paul Shanelly	Leaders' debate	P Wilton-Smyth	P Halivar	P Bennett	P Avery	P Hall-Brookes	P Barnes	P Striġder

Controversies

A number of controversies emerged during the election campaign.

On 28 April, the Morwall SDU was criticised for posting misleaing lefleats, branded with the Greater Morwall Council logo, to potential voters, warning them of a 19.7% tax hike by the Council, supported by Zoe Halivar. The leaflets were reported on 30 April by the PSD for being "clearly fictious and fraudulent". The Electoral Processes Commission determined the leaflets to be fraudulent devices on 4 May, suspending the Morwall SDU's campaign and deducting 10% of their campaign chest in the form of a fine.

On 2 May, Alison Cooper, the PSD candidate for Tootle and Harwich, was reported to the Electoral Processes Commission by the SDU for alleged treating, after she posted an image on Chirper of a box of cookies being given to a voter. On 5 May the EPC declared that the incident did not qualify for action, as the cookies had been given to PSD members campaigning for the party, not independent voters.

Endorsements

A number of organisations, individuals and newspapers have made endorsements on behalf of parties and individual candidates in the election.

Notably, a significant number of heads of governments of Euclean Community members nations associated with the Pink Wave made unprecedented interventions in the election to support their preferred candidate for Prime Minister, Zoe Halivar, and her party. This has been described as part of a 'federalisation' of Euclean politics. It has been suggested that part of the reason for this is that other ASE parties hope to capitalise on the momemtum of the PSD in a 'pink renaissance' to win electoral contests in their own countries.

Newspapers and magazines

National newspapers

Newspaper	Endorsement		Notes
The Chartist		Progressive Social Democrats
Daily Times		Sotirian Democratic Union
Economic Review		Progressive Social Democrats	Advised readers "vote for the anti-SDU candidate most likely to win in your constituency". Supported Zoe Halivar to become PM.
The Express		Sotirian Democratic Union
Red Sunday		Progressive Social Democrats
The Standard		None	Called for readers to vote for "moderate SDU candidates" to "push Mr Wilton-Smyth" to resign.
Witterite News		Progressive Social Democrats

National political magazines

Newspaper	Endorsement		Notes
May Day		Progressive Social Democrats	Left-wing political magazine
The Nation		Sotirian Democratic Union	Right-wing political magazine

Other national publications

Newspaper	Endorsement		Notes
Cultural Review		Progressive Social Democrats	Weekly culture and arts magazine
Mode		Progressive Social Democrats	Weekly fashion magazine
Reverb		Progressive Social Democrats	Bi-monthly rock music magazine
Teen Mode		Progressive Social Democrats	Weekly fashion magazine aimed at young people
Wow!		Progressive Social Democrats	Bi-monthly pop music magazine

Local newspapers

Newspaper	Endorsement		Notes
The Damesbridge Herald		Progressive Social Democrats	Weekly newspaper covering Damesbridgeshire
The Dunwich Echo		Progressive Social Democrats	Daily newspaper covering Dunwich and the wider Dunwich County
Flurland News		Sotirian Democratic Union	Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Flurland
The Morwall Chronicle		Progressive Social Democrats	Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Greater Morwall
St Richards Times		Sotirian Democratic Union	Daily newspaper covering the city of St Richards
The Swathish National		Party of the Swathish	Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Wealdland
Wealdland Post		Progressive Social Democrats	Daily newspaper covering the constituent entity of Wealdland

Foreign newspapers

Newspaper	Endorsement		Notes
The Continental		None	Advised readers to "vote for pro-Euclean candidates [and] parties".
The Hamptonshire Post		Progressive Social Democrats	Swathish-language Alslandic newspaper.
The Norland Post		Progressive Social Democrats	Estmerish-language Borish newspaper.
Today		Party of the Swathish	Swathish-language version of Alslandic newspaper Hjoed.
Westhaven Journal		None	Estmerish-language Borish newspaper.

Individuals

Aldman Democratic Alliance

• Haiko Posthuma, Weranian politician and leader of the Aldman People's Party

Estmere First

• Alfred Boulanger, Gaullican politician and leader of the National Front

Reform Party

• Coralie Barreau, Gaullican politician and co-leader of the PRCP
• Zacharie Blanchard, Gaullican politician and co-leader of the PRCP
• Penny Dorchester, journalist and economist (Also endorsed the PSD)
• Abigail Kynd, journalist
• Matt LePonde, journalist
• Jimmy O'Reilly, Caldish politician and former Taoiseach of Caldia

Progressive Social Democrats

• Sofija Anasdohter, Azmaran politician and incumbent Thingspeaker of Azmara
• Alexandra Aurelia, Amathian politician and leader of the League of Equalists and Democrats
• Baba Baba, indie rock band
• Andrew Bohn, Nuvanian politician and incumbent Chief Minister of Nuvania
• Len Dawson, journalist
• Monique Degar-Abdulrashid, Gaullican politician and incumbent President of Gaullica
• Desert Apes, rock band
• Auro De Maio, Etrurian-born actor
• Penny Dorchester, journalist and economist (Also endorsed the Reform Party)
• Ian Durras, rugby player
• Esmeralda Falcão, Paretian politician and leader of the Social Democrats of Paretia
• Jonathan Fraser, Alslandic politician and former Premier of Alsland
• Gustzy, musician
• Anna Harrington, musician
• Luise Höcherl, Weranian politician and leader of the SRPO
• Clara Hverman, Borish politician and leader of the New Left
• Eryk Jorśsun, Azmaran politician and former Thingspeaker of Azmara
• Just Tell Me, rock band
• Annie Kendall, journalist and activist
• Dani Leiberman, actor and activist
• Stiofán Mac Suibhne, Caldish politician and incumbent Taoiseach of Caldia
• Cate Marshal, journalist
• Irena Mesić, Slirnian politician and incumbent Premier of Slirnia
• Louis Matthew Montgomery, composer and playwright
• Ottila Möller, Alslandic politician and incumbent Premier of Alsland
• Periodic Ways, rock band
• Brooke Richards, television producer and screenwriter, creator of Faculty
• Martina Scott, Alslandic politician and former Premier and President of Alsland
• Gopal Singh, journalist
• Suspa, musician
• Mathéo Turzyna, Gaullican politician and incumbent Premier of Gaullica
• Salenna Tyson, actress
• Jean Vallette, Gaullican politician and former President of Gaullica
• Rupert van Bleiswijk, Hennish politician and incumbent Premier of Hennehouwe
• YBRV, musician
• Vivi, musician
• Bonne Zijlstra, Alslandic politician and former President of the Euclean Community

Sotirian Democratic Union

• Amy Alehome, journalist
• Edward Bates, journalist
• Isilda Cerqueira, Paretian politician and incumbent Premier of Paretia
• Hugo-Noël Devereaux, Gaullican politician and former President of Gaullica
• Augustin De Troumpe, Gaullican politician and former Cabinet minister
• Lilliana Elliott, Alslandic politician and former Premier of Premier of Alsland
• Rob Little, journalist
• Pádraig Mac Piarais, Caldish politician and leader of the Liberty Party
• Bartholomäus Stobrawa, Weranian politician and incumbent Minister-President of Cislania
• Alan Rickman, journalist
• Vittoria Vasari, Etrurian politician and incumbent Vice President of Etruria
• Albert Lucas Winson, composer and playright
• Dietrich Wittmann, Weranian politician and former Chancellor of Werania
• Daniella Wright, Alslandic politician and leader of the Democrats

Organisations and other political parties

Aldman Democratic Alliance

• Aldman People's Party of Werania

Left Party

Trade unions

• Farmworkers' Union
• Independent Trade Union Federation
• Industrial Workers' Union
• Rail and Ports Union
• Union of Seaworkers
• Unorganised Workers' Council

Other

• Workers' International

Greens

• Green Party of Hennehouwe

Centre Party

• National Agricultural Guild (Endorsed Centre in the list vote and specific SDU constituency candidates)

Progressive Social Democrats

Trade unions

• Academic Assistance Association
• ACT – The Actors' Union
• Congress of Estmerish Trade Unions
• Electric and Industrial Workers' Union
• Firefighters Union
• General Workers' Union
• Independent and Unorganised Workers' Union
• Mineworkers' Federation
• Musicians' and Cultural Workers' Union
• National Teachers' Association
• Postal and Communication Union
• Public and Municipal Workers' Union
• Public Sector Association
• Service and Shop Workers' Union
• Shipping, Portworkers' and Transport Union
• Steelworkers' Union
• Unite Together
• Writers' Guild

Other

• Social Democratic Party of Etruria

Sotirian Democratic Union

• National Agricultural Guild (Endorsed Centre in the list vote and specific SDU constituency candidates)
• Veritas Institute, a right-wing non-profit political advocacy organisation and think tank

Opinion polling

Opinion polls were conducted throughout the period following the last election, by a number of polling organisations, most of which are members of the Estmerish Opinion Polling Organisation. Below is a graph showing opinion poll result average trendline for the general election.

<graph>{"legends":[{"properties":{"title":{"fill":{"value":"#54595d"}},"labels":{"fill":{"value":"#54595d"}}},"stroke":"color","title":"Legend:","fill":"color"}],"scales":[{"clamp":true,"type":"time","name":"x","domainMax":"1619360800000","domain":{"data":"chart","field":"x"},"zero":false,"range":"width","nice":false},{"clamp":true,"type":"linear","name":"y","domain":{"data":"chart","field":"y"},"domainMin":0,"zero":false,"range":"height","nice":true},{"domain":{"data":"chart","field":"series"},"type":"ordinal","name":"color","range":["#000000","#ea2d5a","#e9a735","#000000","#6ab023","#e3170d","#008142","#c136a3","#0000ff","#24a8e0","#dddddd"]}],"version":2,"marks":[{"type":"group","marks":[{"properties":{"hover":{"stroke":{"value":"red"}},"update":{"stroke":{"scale":"color","field":"series"}},"enter":{"y":{"scale":"y","field":"y"},"x":{"scale":"x","field":"x"},"stroke":{"scale":"color","field":"series"},"interpolate":{"value":"bundle"},"strokeWidth":{"value":2.5}}},"type":"line"},{"properties":{"enter":{"y":{"scale":"y","field":"y"},"x":{"scale":"x","field":"x"},"size":{"value":49},"shape":"circle","fill":{"scale":"color","field":"series"}}},"type":"symbol"}],"from":{"data":"chart","transform":[{"groupby":["series"],"type":"facet"}]}}],"height":390,"axes":[{"type":"x","title":"date","scale":"x","properties":{"title":{"fill":{"value":"#54595d"}},"grid":{"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"ticks":{"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"axis":{"strokeWidth":{"value":2},"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"labels":{"align":{"value":"right"},"angle":{"value":-10},"fill":{"value":"#54595d"}}},"grid":false},{"type":"y","title":"% of votes","scale":"y","properties":{"title":{"fill":{"value":"#54595d"}},"grid":{"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"ticks":{"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"axis":{"strokeWidth":{"value":2},"stroke":{"value":"#54595d"}},"labels":{"fill":{"value":"#54595d"}}},"grid":true}],"data":[{"format":{"parse":{"y":"number","x":"date"},"type":"json"},"name":"chart","values":[{"y":37.4,"series":"SDU","x":"2018/05/01"},{"y":38.1,"series":"SDU","x":"2018/06/01"},{"y":37.9,"series":"SDU","x":"2018/07/01"},{"y":37.5,"series":"SDU","x":"2018/08/01"},{"y":37.7,"series":"SDU","x":"2018/09/01"},{"y":37.3,"series":"SDU","x":"2018/10/01"},{"y":35.8,"series":"SDU","x":"2018/11/01"},{"y":33.4,"series":"SDU","x":"2018/12/01"},{"y":33.2,"series":"SDU","x":"2019/01/01"},{"y":32.6,"series":"SDU","x":"2019/02/01"},{"y":33.1,"series":"SDU","x":"2019/03/01"},{"y":33.7,"series":"SDU","x":"2019/04/01"},{"y":34.5,"series":"SDU","x":"2019/05/01"},{"y":35.8,"series":"SDU","x":"2019/06/01"},{"y":42.3,"series":"SDU","x":"2019/07/01"},{"y":43.7,"series":"SDU","x":"2019/08/01"},{"y":44.2,"series":"SDU","x":"2019/09/01"},{"y":42.5,"series":"SDU","x":"2019/10/01"},{"y":41.8,"series":"SDU","x":"2019/11/01"},{"y":41.2,"series":"SDU","x":"2019/12/01"},{"y":40.8,"series":"SDU","x":"2020/01/01"},{"y":40.9,"series":"SDU","x":"2020/02/01"},{"y":40.6,"series":"SDU","x":"2020/03/01"},{"y":39.7,"series":"SDU","x":"2020/04/01"},{"y":39.6,"series":"SDU","x":"2020/05/01"},{"y":39.3,"series":"SDU","x":"2020/06/01"},{"y":38.8,"series":"SDU","x":"2020/07/01"},{"y":39.5,"series":"SDU","x":"2020/08/01"},{"y":39.4,"series":"SDU","x":"2020/09/01"},{"y":37.3,"series":"SDU","x":"2020/10/01"},{"y":36,"series":"SDU","x":"2020/11/01"},{"y":35.8,"series":"SDU","x":"2020/12/01"},{"y":35.2,"series":"SDU","x":"2021/01/01"},{"y":34.2,"series":"SDU","x":"2021/02/01"},{"y":33.6,"series":"SDU","x":"2021/03/01"},{"y":30.8,"series":"SDU","x":"2021/04/01"},{"y":29.5,"series":"SDU","x":"2021/05/01"},{"y":32.8,"series":"PSD","x":"2018/05/01"},{"y":30.5,"series":"PSD","x":"2018/06/01"},{"y":31.2,"series":"PSD","x":"2018/07/01"},{"y":32.9,"series":"PSD","x":"2018/08/01"},{"y":33.1,"series":"PSD","x":"2018/09/01"},{"y":32.9,"series":"PSD","x":"2018/10/01"},{"y":33.7,"series":"PSD","x":"2018/11/01"},{"y":34.1,"series":"PSD","x":"2018/12/01"},{"y":34.7,"series":"PSD","x":"2019/01/01"},{"y":35.2,"series":"PSD","x":"2019/02/01"},{"y":34.9,"series":"PSD","x":"2019/03/01"},{"y":34.5,"series":"PSD","x":"2019/04/01"},{"y":32.6,"series":"PSD","x":"2019/05/01"},{"y":32.7,"series":"PSD","x":"2019/06/01"},{"y":29.8,"series":"PSD","x":"2019/07/01"},{"y":27.6,"series":"PSD","x":"2019/08/01"},{"y":28,"series":"PSD","x":"2019/09/01"},{"y":29.2,"series":"PSD","x":"2019/10/01"},{"y":29.5,"series":"PSD","x":"2019/11/01"},{"y":29.7,"series":"PSD","x":"2019/12/01"},{"y":30.1,"series":"PSD","x":"2020/01/01"},{"y":29.8,"series":"PSD","x":"2020/02/01"},{"y":29.9,"series":"PSD","x":"2020/03/01"},{"y":30.7,"series":"PSD","x":"2020/04/01"},{"y":31.2,"series":"PSD","x":"2020/05/01"},{"y":31.5,"series":"PSD","x":"2020/06/01"},{"y":32.4,"series":"PSD","x":"2020/07/01"},{"y":32.9,"series":"PSD","x":"2020/08/01"},{"y":33.3,"series":"PSD","x":"2020/09/01"},{"y":33.7,"series":"PSD","x":"2020/10/01"},{"y":34,"series":"PSD","x":"2020/11/01"},{"y":34.2,"series":"PSD","x":"2020/12/01"},{"y":34.5,"series":"PSD","x":"2021/01/01"},{"y":36.8,"series":"PSD","x":"2021/02/01"},{"y":37.9,"series":"PSD","x":"2021/03/01"},{"y":39.6,"series":"PSD","x":"2021/04/01"},{"y":40.5,"series":"PSD","x":"2021/05/01"},{"y":15.9,"series":"Reform","x":"2018/05/01"},{"y":16.7,"series":"Reform","x":"2018/06/01"},{"y":16.2,"series":"Reform","x":"2018/07/01"},{"y":15.9,"series":"Reform","x":"2018/08/01"},{"y":15.4,"series":"Reform","x":"2018/09/01"},{"y":15.6,"series":"Reform","x":"2018/10/01"},{"y":15.9,"series":"Reform","x":"2018/11/01"},{"y":16.2,"series":"Reform","x":"2018/12/01"},{"y":15.3,"series":"Reform","x":"2019/01/01"},{"y":14.7,"series":"Reform","x":"2019/02/01"},{"y":14.9,"series":"Reform","x":"2019/03/01"},{"y":15.6,"series":"Reform","x":"2019/04/01"},{"y":16.1,"series":"Reform","x":"2019/05/01"},{"y":16.8,"series":"Reform","x":"2019/06/01"},{"y":12.5,"series":"Reform","x":"2019/07/01"},{"y":9.2,"series":"Reform","x":"2019/08/01"},{"y":8.3,"series":"Reform","x":"2019/09/01"},{"y":8.1,"series":"Reform","x":"2019/10/01"},{"y":7.9,"series":"Reform","x":"2019/11/01"},{"y":8.2,"series":"Reform","x":"2019/12/01"},{"y":7.2,"series":"Reform","x":"2020/01/01"},{"y":8.8,"series":"Reform","x":"2020/02/01"},{"y":8.1,"series":"Reform","x":"2020/03/01"},{"y":8.2,"series":"Reform","x":"2020/04/01"},{"y":7.8,"series":"Reform","x":"2020/05/01"},{"y":7.7,"series":"Reform","x":"2020/06/01"},{"y":7.5,"series":"Reform","x":"2020/07/01"},{"y":8.2,"series":"Reform","x":"2020/08/01"},{"y":8.8,"series":"Reform","x":"2020/09/01"},{"y":9.4,"series":"Reform","x":"2020/10/01"},{"y":9.7,"series":"Reform","x":"2020/11/01"},{"y":10.4,"series":"Reform","x":"2020/12/01"},{"y":11.7,"series":"Reform","x":"2021/01/01"},{"y":9.2,"series":"Reform","x":"2021/02/01"},{"y":8.9,"series":"Reform","x":"2021/03/01"},{"y":7.4,"series":"Reform","x":"2021/04/01"},{"y":7.1,"series":"Reform","x":"2021/05/01"},{"y":5.3,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2018/05/01"},{"y":4.9,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2018/06/01"},{"y":4.7,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2018/07/01"},{"y":4.9,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2018/08/01"},{"y":5.2,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2018/09/01"},{"y":5.4,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2018/10/01"},{"y":5.6,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2018/11/01"},{"y":5.9,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2018/12/01"},{"y":5.2,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2019/01/01"},{"y":4.7,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2019/02/01"},{"y":4.5,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2019/03/01"},{"y":4.9,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2019/04/01"},{"y":5.3,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2019/05/01"},{"y":5.5,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2019/06/01"},{"y":5.1,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2019/07/01"},{"y":3.8,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2019/08/01"},{"y":4.1,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2019/09/01"},{"y":4.3,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2019/10/01"},{"y":4.3,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2019/11/01"},{"y":4.2,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2019/12/01"},{"y":3.9,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2020/01/01"},{"y":3.7,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2020/02/01"},{"y":3.6,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2020/03/01"},{"y":3.3,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2020/04/01"},{"y":3.7,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2020/05/01"},{"y":3.1,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2020/06/01"},{"y":2.8,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2020/07/01"},{"y":2.7,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2020/08/01"},{"y":2.3,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2020/09/01"},{"y":2.7,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2020/10/01"},{"y":2.6,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2020/11/01"},{"y":2.2,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2020/12/01"},{"y":2.1,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2021/01/01"},{"y":1.9,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2021/02/01"},{"y":2.1,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2021/03/01"},{"y":1.4,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2021/04/01"},{"y":0.8,"series":"Estmere First","x":"2021/05/01"},{"y":4.7,"series":"Greens","x":"2018/05/01"},{"y":5.1,"series":"Greens","x":"2018/06/01"},{"y":5,"series":"Greens","x":"2018/07/01"},{"y":5.1,"series":"Greens","x":"2018/08/01"},{"y":5.4,"series":"Greens","x":"2018/09/01"},{"y":5.3,"series":"Greens","x":"2018/10/01"},{"y":5.2,"series":"Greens","x":"2018/11/01"},{"y":4.8,"series":"Greens","x":"2018/12/01"},{"y":5.1,"series":"Greens","x":"2019/01/01"},{"y":5.3,"series":"Greens","x":"2019/02/01"},{"y":5.6,"series":"Greens","x":"2019/03/01"},{"y":5.1,"series":"Greens","x":"2019/04/01"},{"y":4.9,"series":"Greens","x":"2019/05/01"},{"y":4.6,"series":"Greens","x":"2019/06/01"},{"y":3.7,"series":"Greens","x":"2019/07/01"},{"y":2.9,"series":"Greens","x":"2019/08/01"},{"y":3.1,"series":"Greens","x":"2019/09/01"},{"y":3.3,"series":"Greens","x":"2019/10/01"},{"y":4.2,"series":"Greens","x":"2019/11/01"},{"y":4.6,"series":"Greens","x":"2019/12/01"},{"y":4.9,"series":"Greens","x":"2020/01/01"},{"y":5,"series":"Greens","x":"2020/02/01"},{"y":5.1,"series":"Greens","x":"2020/03/01"},{"y":5.2,"series":"Greens","x":"2020/04/01"},{"y":5.7,"series":"Greens","x":"2020/05/01"},{"y":5.8,"series":"Greens","x":"2020/06/01"},{"y":6.1,"series":"Greens","x":"2020/07/01"},{"y":5.9,"series":"Greens","x":"2020/08/01"},{"y":5.8,"series":"Greens","x":"2020/09/01"},{"y":5.5,"series":"Greens","x":"2020/10/01"},{"y":5.3,"series":"Greens","x":"2020/11/01"},{"y":5.1,"series":"Greens","x":"2020/12/01"},{"y":4.9,"series":"Greens","x":"2021/01/01"},{"y":5.3,"series":"Greens","x":"2021/02/01"},{"y":5.9,"series":"Greens","x":"2021/03/01"},{"y":6.3,"series":"Greens","x":"2021/04/01"},{"y":6.4,"series":"Greens","x":"2021/05/01"},{"y":3.1,"series":"Left","x":"2018/05/01"},{"y":3.9,"series":"Left","x":"2018/06/01"},{"y":3.6,"series":"Left","x":"2018/07/01"},{"y":3.3,"series":"Left","x":"2018/08/01"},{"y":3,"series":"Left","x":"2018/09/01"},{"y":3.8,"series":"Left","x":"2018/10/01"},{"y":3.5,"series":"Left","x":"2018/11/01"},{"y":3.3,"series":"Left","x":"2018/12/01"},{"y":3.1,"series":"Left","x":"2019/01/01"},{"y":3.3,"series":"Left","x":"2019/02/01"},{"y":3.3,"series":"Left","x":"2019/03/01"},{"y":3.2,"series":"Left","x":"2019/04/01"},{"y":4.7,"series":"Left","x":"2019/05/01"},{"y":5.2,"series":"Left","x":"2019/06/01"},{"y":3.9,"series":"Left","x":"2019/07/01"},{"y":2.9,"series":"Left","x":"2019/08/01"},{"y":2.9,"series":"Left","x":"2019/09/01"},{"y":3,"series":"Left","x":"2019/10/01"},{"y":3.2,"series":"Left","x":"2019/11/01"},{"y":3.3,"series":"Left","x":"2019/12/01"},{"y":3.2,"series":"Left","x":"2020/01/01"},{"y":3.2,"series":"Left","x":"2020/02/01"},{"y":3.3,"series":"Left","x":"2020/03/01"},{"y":3.5,"series":"Left","x":"2020/04/01"},{"y":3.4,"series":"Left","x":"2020/05/01"},{"y":3.3,"series":"Left","x":"2020/06/01"},{"y":3.4,"series":"Left","x":"2020/07/01"},{"y":3.5,"series":"Left","x":"2020/08/01"},{"y":3.6,"series":"Left","x":"2020/09/01"},{"y":3.8,"series":"Left","x":"2020/10/01"},{"y":3.7,"series":"Left","x":"2020/11/01"},{"y":3.9,"series":"Left","x":"2020/12/01"},{"y":3.6,"series":"Left","x":"2021/01/01"},{"y":4,"series":"Left","x":"2021/02/01"},{"y":4.2,"series":"Left","x":"2021/03/01"},{"y":4.8,"series":"Left","x":"2021/04/01"},{"y":5.1,"series":"Left","x":"2021/05/01"},{"y":2.9,"series":"PS","x":"2018/05/01"},{"y":2.8,"series":"PS","x":"2018/06/01"},{"y":2.8,"series":"PS","x":"2018/07/01"},{"y":3.1,"series":"PS","x":"2018/08/01"},{"y":3.2,"series":"PS","x":"2018/09/01"},{"y":3.5,"series":"PS","x":"2018/10/01"},{"y":3.1,"series":"PS","x":"2018/11/01"},{"y":2.9,"series":"PS","x":"2018/12/01"},{"y":2.7,"series":"PS","x":"2019/01/01"},{"y":2.9,"series":"PS","x":"2019/02/01"},{"y":3.3,"series":"PS","x":"2019/03/01"},{"y":3.5,"series":"PS","x":"2019/04/01"},{"y":3.2,"series":"PS","x":"2019/05/01"},{"y":3.1,"series":"PS","x":"2019/06/01"},{"y":2.8,"series":"PS","x":"2019/07/01"},{"y":2.2,"series":"PS","x":"2019/08/01"},{"y":2.5,"series":"PS","x":"2019/09/01"},{"y":2.4,"series":"PS","x":"2019/10/01"},{"y":2.6,"series":"PS","x":"2019/11/01"},{"y":2.7,"series":"PS","x":"2019/12/01"},{"y":2.9,"series":"PS","x":"2020/01/01"},{"y":3.3,"series":"PS","x":"2020/02/01"},{"y":3.2,"series":"PS","x":"2020/03/01"},{"y":3.5,"series":"PS","x":"2020/04/01"},{"y":3.7,"series":"PS","x":"2020/05/01"},{"y":3.6,"series":"PS","x":"2020/06/01"},{"y":3.4,"series":"PS","x":"2020/07/01"},{"y":3.2,"series":"PS","x":"2020/08/01"},{"y":3.1,"series":"PS","x":"2020/09/01"},{"y":3,"series":"PS","x":"2020/10/01"},{"y":3.1,"series":"PS","x":"2020/11/01"},{"y":3.2,"series":"PS","x":"2020/12/01"},{"y":3,"series":"PS","x":"2021/01/01"},{"y":2.9,"series":"PS","x":"2021/02/01"},{"y":3.1,"series":"PS","x":"2021/03/01"},{"y":3.3,"series":"PS","x":"2021/04/01"},{"y":3.4,"series":"PS","x":"2021/05/01"}]}],"width":780}</graph>

Exit poll

An exit poll was conducted by YouPoll on behalf of the News Association, and was published at 10pm after voting had finished. It predicted that the Progressive Social Democrats was the largest party, with the Sotirian Democratic Union and Reform Party coalition losing their overall majority. The results were close to the exit poll, though it slightly over-estimated the SDU and Reform seats, and underestimated the PSD and new party (Vox, future.es, Centre) seats.

Parties		Seats	Change
	Progressive Social Democrats	250	63
	Sotirian Democratic Union	205	11
	Reform Party	47	54
	Greens	36	7
	Left Party	19	4
	Party of the Swathish	13	2
	Centre Party	12	12
	Vox Estmere	11	11
	future.es	5	5
	Aldman Democratic Alliance	2
	Estmere First	0	35
PSD 51 short of a majority

Results

Constituency results came in through the night, with the first constituency to declare being Longwood East at 11:16pm, beating Rasifax and Ramsfield West who declared second and third respectively. Strool was gthe last constituency to declare, at 1pm the following day, following four recounts. The full constituency results and preliminary party list results were announced on 28 May. For constituencies, the PSD were on 195, the SDU on 148, Reform on 37, the Greens on 8, the Left on 1, PS on 9, the ADA on 2 and all others on 0. The preliminary party list results showed the PSD between 54-63, the SDU between 44-59, Reform between 1-13, the Greens between 27-35, the Left between 14-26, PS between 0-3, Vox between 4-13, Centre between 7-19, future.es between 2-11 future.es, and all others on 0.

The full official results were announced on 29 May, showing the Progressive Social Democrats on 253 seats, outperforming the exit poll, with the Sotirian Democratic Union on 199 and the Reform Party on 44, both underperforming the exit poll. The PSD was the largest party by a significant margin, and was widely reported to have won the election. It emerged as the largest party for the first time in a national election since the 1973 election, and Zoe Halivar announced her intention to form a minority government with an informal agreement of support from Reform, the Greens and Left. This was in spite of Reginald Wilton-Smyth also attempting to secure a majority in the Chamber for his incumbent government. Wilton-Smyth conceded defeat on 31 May, and Halivar was invited by President Alice Roberts to form a government.

↓

253	40	21	44	199	43
Progressive Social Democrats	Greens	Left	Reform	Sotirian Democratic Union	Others

File:2021 Estmere Parliament.svg
Party		Constituency		Party		Seats	+/–
		Votes	%	Votes	%
	Progressive Social Democrats	13,805,572	44.79	12,729,101	41.30	253	66
	Sotirian Democratic Union	10,529,099	34.16	10,032,054	32.55	199	17
	Reform Party	2,780,225	9.02	2,185,905	7.09	44	57
	Greens	1,417,853	4.60	2,116,405	6.87	40	11
	Left Party	610,293	1.98	1,156,376	3.75	21	6
	Centre Party	332,887	1.08	793,954	2.58	14	New
	Party of the Swathish	591,799	1.92	531,767	1.73	10	5
	Vox Estmere	228,089	0.74	583,917	1.89	10	New
	future.es	197,266	0.64	384,706	1.25	7	New
	Aldman Democratic Alliance	126,374	0.41	104,010	0.34	2	0
	Estmere First	151,032	0.49	115,587	0.38	0	35
	All other parties	50,008	0.16	84,925	0.28	–	–
Total		30,820,497	100.00	30,818,707	100.00	600	600
Valid votes		30,820,497	99.99	30,818,707	99.99
Invalid/blank votes		2,391	0.01	4,183	0.01
Total votes		30,822,888	100.00	30,822,890	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		42,308,455	72.85
Source: EBS News Online